Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 9th April 2016

The wait is over folks as the 'big one' is here - The Aintree Grand National takes centre stage this Saturday, along with four other LIVE C4 races - as always we've got it all covered from a trends angle!

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SATURDAY, 9th April 2016 (C4/RUK)

2.25 – EZ Trader Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f CH4

12/13 – Raced 39 days or less ago
12/13 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
11/13 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
9/13 – Placed in the top three last time out
9/13 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (5) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
5/13 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (4 of the last 6 favs have won)
4/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 5 runnings)
14 of the last 18 winners were either fav or 2nd fav
13 of the last 19 winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 50% of the last 12 runnings between them
5 of the last 6 runnings went to a 5 year-old

3.00 – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
13/13 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
13/13 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
11/13 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Ran within the last 35 days
10/13 – Placed in the top three in their last race
9/13 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
7/13 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/13 – Won by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
5/13 – Favourites that won
5/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 5 runnings)
2/13 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 3 runnings)
2/13 – Irish-trained winners
Since 1989 there have been just 2 Irish-trained winners – 2013 & 2015
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners and 7 runners-up
17 of the last 21 winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season

3.40 – Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y CH4

12/12 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
11/12 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
11/12 – Ran within the last 30 days
9/12 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
9/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/12 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Favourites to win (5 odds-on)
5/12 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/12 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
1/12 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper has won the last 2 renewals

4.20 – Betfred Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f CH4

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12/13 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
11/13 – Had run within the last 35 days
10/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
8/13 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
8/13 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
7/13 – Unplaced in their last race
3/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/13 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/13 – Favourites that won
0/13 – Number of Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 19 winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Only 2 of the last 17 winners were aged 10+
Just one winner carried more than 11st in the last 12 years
No Irish-trained winner in the last 39 runnings
5 of the last 6 winners were rated between 134 and 138

5.15 – Crabbie’s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y CH4

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 25 Runnings)

- 25/25 - Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 24/25 - Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/25 - Officially rated 137 or higher
· 23/25 - Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 22/25 - Aged 9 or older
· 20/25 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 20/25 - Returned a double-figure price
· 19/25 - Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 19/25 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/25 - Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 15/25 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 14/25 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 14/25 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 13/25 - Placed favourites
· 13/25 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 13/25 - Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/25 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 7/25 - Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 10 years)
· 6/25 - Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/25 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 4/25 - Won last time out
· 2/25 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/25 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
-2/25 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/25 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

· Since 1978, 116 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
· 13 of the last 17 winners were bred in Ireland
· Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
· The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
- 12 of the last 19 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
- No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
- 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
- 9 of the last 13 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
- 5 of the last 15 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
- Only two 8 year-olds have won the last 22 renewals
- Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 32 years (73 have attempted)
- 17 of the last 19 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
· The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974 – Many Clouds will be trying to change that!

Aintree Grand National Trends (13 Year)

13/13 – Had won over at least 3m previously
12/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/13 – Ran less than 50 days ago
11/13 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/13 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
7/13 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
7/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
6/13 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/13 – Experienced the National fences
5/13 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
4/13 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/13 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 13 renewals is 28/1

 

 

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