Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 9th July 2016

It’s the final day of the Newmarket July Meeting, while the C4 cameras are also at York for the John Smith’s Cup, and Ascot too – with 10 LIVE races in all. As always Andy Newton is on-hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE C4 races.

 

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

3.25 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

13/14 – Had won over 7f or further previously
12/14 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/14 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/14 – Unplaced in their last race
7/14 – Favourites unplaced
7/14 – Winners from stall 9 or higher
3/14 – Won their last race
3/14 – Winning Favourites
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 10/1

4.00 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f CH4

13/14 – Won over at least 6f previously
12/14 – Placed in their last race
11/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
11/14 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
9/14 – Won their latest race
9/14 – Won by either a March or April foal
8/14 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
6/14 – Favourites unplaced
4/14 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/14 – Winners from stall 3
4/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
4/14 – Winning Favourites
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 3)
2/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

4.35 - Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f CH4


Recent July Cup Winners.....

2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011     Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010    Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009    Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008    Marchand d'Or  (5/2 fav)
2007    Sakhee's Secret  (9/2)
2006    Les Arcs (10/1)
2005    Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004    Frizzante (14/1)
2003    Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002    Continent (12/1)

14 Year July Cup Betting Trends

13/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
11/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
11/14 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
10/14 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
9/14 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/14 – Placed last time out
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Won their previous race
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
2/14 – Irish-trained winners
1/14 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 17/2
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968

5.10 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

14/14 – Won over 7f previously
13/14 – Raced 3 or more times that season
10/14 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
10/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
8/14 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
7/14 – Winners from stall 15 or higher
7/14 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
6/14 – Placed in their last race
3/14 – Favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.5/1
Heaven’s Guest won the race in 2014


York Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


3.00 - John Smith´s Racing Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

12/12 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
11/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/12 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/12 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/12 – Had won between 2-4 times before
8/12 – Rated 90 or less
8/12 – Priced between 7/1 and 14/1
8/12 – Placed last time out
7/12 – Winning distance – ¾ or less
7/12 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Won by a USA-bred horse
3/12 – Had raced at York before
3/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8.5/1
8 of the last 10 winners came from stall 7 or lower
5 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2 or 3

3.40 - John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f CH4

10/10 – Aged 5 or younger
10/10 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
9/10 – Won from stall 10 or lower
8/10 – Didn’t win their previous race
6/10 – Aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Carried 9-5 or less
5/10 – Had run at York before
4/10 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
4/10 – Luca Cumani-trained horses that finished in the top three
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Continuum won the race in 2014

4.15 – 57th John Smith´s Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y CH4


Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners.......

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2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 -  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

14/14 – Aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
11/14 – Came from stall 9 or higher
11/14 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
9/14 – Carried 9-2 or less
9/14 – Top 3 finish in their previous race
9/14 – Aged 4 years-old
7/14 – Officially rated between 99-105
6/14 – Had run at York before
3/14 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
3/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 10.5/1

4.50 - John Smith´s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f CH4

Only 5 previous runnings
Out Do won the race 12 months ago
5/5 – Won over 5f before
5/5 – Placed favourites
5/5 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
5/5 – Rated between 101 and 110
4/5 – Had only won at Handicap class before
4/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/5 – Unplaced last time out
3/5 – Won by a neck
3/5 – Won at York before
2/5 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/5 – Ridden by Phillip Makin


Ascot Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)


2.45 - Totescoop6 Heritage Handicap Cl2 5f CH4

Just 3 previous running
3/3 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1 or bigger
3/3 – Carried 8-10 or more
2/3 – Aged 4 years-old
Trainer Roger Varian won the race 12 months ago

3.15 - Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m CH4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
7/9 – Had won over at least a mile before
7/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/9 – Had raced at Ascot before (1 won)
6/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Previous Group race winner
5/9 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/9 – Aged 4 years-old
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Had won a Group 1 before
3/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 13/2
Trainers Quotes

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"Indus Valley - Won at the track before so no issues on that front and will like the ground - the faster the better for this horse. Well weighted at the moment too. Will need a bit of luck in-running as a hold-up horse, but Kieren should keep him out of trouble - looks a decent e/w price to me."
Lee Carter

05/07/16 1st 9/1

"Dawnieriver - Very competitive race and we need to put a recent poor run behind us - been sent off as favourite the last twice. Probably found the shorter trip against her last time, but before that was a solid third of 9 at Uttoxeter and off a pound lower mark would have a chance if running to that level. Had a month off and seems well at home so not without a chance of being involved."
Michael Scudamore

04/07/16 2nd 20/1

 


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