Saturday TV Race Trends

Sir Michael StouteIn a brand new weekly feature Andy Newton highlights the key trends and stats ahead of Saturday’s TV races – this week from Ascot(BBC), Newmarket (C4) and York (C4)

Ascot (BBC & ATR)


2.40 - PRINCESS MARGARET JUDDMONTE STAKES (GROUP 3) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £28,355 BBC1 6f

- Mick Channon took the prize 12 months ago – he runs BETTY FOR FONTAINE
- Sir Michael Stoute won this in 2002 & 2007 – he tries again with RUSSELLIANA
- Jeremy Noseda landed the spoils in 2001 – he’s got REGAL REALM entered
- 5 winning favourites in the last 10 years (2 joint)
- 9 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
- Ryan Moore  won this race in 2007 & 2010 – he teams up with Stoute to ride RUSSELLIANA
- Sir Michael Stoute boasts a huge 29% strike-rate (2-7) at the track with his 2 year-olds
- Mick Channon has a +£23.83 level stakes profit with his juveniles at the course

3.15 - DELOITTE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo) Winner £28,013 BBC1 1m

- Sir Michael Stoute took this in 2008 – he runs joint top-weight ALBAASIL
- Clive Cox won this in 2006 with Dunelight – he tries to add to that with AERIAL ACCLAIM
- Only 5 previous renewals, but NO winning favourite
- 4 of the last 5 winners carried 9-2 or LESS
-Veteran jockey Phillip Robinson has won 2 of the last 5 – he gets the leg-up on SEATTLE DRIVE
- Clive Cox has a 20% (4-20) strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at Ascot
- Ryan Moore has one of the worst strike-rates (8% 8-96) on 3 year-olds at the track – he rides CROWN COUNSEL

3.50 -  BETFAIR SUMMER DOUBLE FIRST LEG INTERNATIONAL (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £62,250 BBC1 7f

- N0 winning favourites in the last 10 years
- Richard Fahey won this 12 months ago – he saddles BRAE HILL & CASTLES IN THE AIR this year
- Mark Johnston took this in 2008 – he runs BELOW ZERO & KINGSCROFT
- George Margarson won the prize in 2001 – he’s got course and distance winner EXCELLENT GUEST entered
- 7 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
- 7 of the last 10 winners were won by a 4 year-old
- No horse older than 5 years-old has won in the last 10 renewals
- 7 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or LESS
- John Gosden has an 18% strike-rate with his 4+year-olds at the track – he runs BRONZE PRINCE
- Richard Fahey is only 3-71 (4%) with his older horses at the course
- Tim Easterby is 0-19 with his older horses at the Berkshire venue – he runs STRIKING SPIRIT
- Jockey Robert Winston is 0-23 on 4+year-olds at Ascot – he rides IMPERIAL DJAY

4.30 - KING GEORGE VI AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (SPONSORED BY BETFAIR) BRITISH CHAMPIONS´ SERIES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £603,962 BBC11m4f

- Sir Michael Stoute has won 3 of the last 10, including the last 2 renewals (won the race 5 times in all) – he runs last year’s Derby winner WORKFORCE
- Aidan O’Brien has landed 3 of the last 10 KG’s – he sends recent Coronation Cup winner ST NICHOLAS ABBEY to post
- 10 of the last 10 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
- All of the last 10 were won by a 3 or 4 year-old
- 9 of the last 10 winners were placed in their previous race
- 8 of the last 10 came 1st or 2nd in on their last run
- 7 of the last 10 were won by the favourite
- 6 of the last 10 won last time out – a negative for Eclipse runner-up WORKFORCE
- 50% of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland
- Aidan O’Brien has the best strike-rate with his 4+year-olds at the track (34% 12-35)


Newmarket (C4 & RUK)


2.15 - BOYLESPORTS.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) Winner £8,715 CH4 1m2f

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- David Elsworth tries to win the race for a second year in  a row with CLASSIC PUNCH
- 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years
- 7 of the last 10 returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
- 9 of the last 10 aged either 3,4 or 5 years-old
- Jamie Spencer has won this in 2005 and 2010 – he rides CLUB OCEANIC
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or MORE – Bad news for GEORGE ADAMSON and SPA’S DANCER
- Trainer PJ O’Gorman has a 29% (2-7) strike-rate at the track with his older horses – he runs ALBAQAA
- Jockey George Baker is 9-32 (28%) and +£46.21 at the track when he rides 4+year-olds – he rides ALL ANNALENA

2.45 - BOYLESPORTS EVERY SECOND COUNTS FILLIES´ (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) Winner £12,938 CH4 7f

- Ralph Beckett took this 12 months ago – he runs ISHBELLE this year
- Chris Wall won this race in 2009 – he’s got WAKE UP CALL entered
- Only 4 previous runnings, but NO winning favourite
- 3 of the last 4 were won by a 3 year-old
- All four recent winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
- 3 of the last 4 winners carried 9-2 or MORE to victory
- Chris Wall boasts a 25% strike-rate (6-24) with this older horses at the track
- Out-of-form trainer Clive Brittain is only 1 from 40 with his 3 year-olds at the course – he runs BREEDJ
- Jockey George Baker is 9-32 (28%) and has a +£46.21 profit on the older horses at HQ – he rides WAKE UP CALL
- Dane O’Neill is just 1 won from 44 (2%) on the older horses at the track – he rides BONNIE BRAE

3.20 - BOYLESPORTS MOBILE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) Winner £29,111 CH4 6f

- No previous runnings
- Nicky Mackay is 0-26 when riding 3 year-olds at the track – he rides SWISS DREAM
- Richard Fahey is just 1 from 25 (4%) with his 3 year-olds at the course – he has WHAT ABOUT YOU, MR OPTIMISTIC and ARTIC FEELING entered
- Mick Channon is only 1 from 40 (3% with the 3 year-olds he’s run at Newmarket – he runs MAJESTIC DUBAWI
- Shane Kelly has a 22% strike-rate when riding 3 year-olds at HQ – he’s on recent Windsor winner SIRIUS PROSPECT
- Liam Keniry has a 24% strike-rate (5-21) and a +£39.50 level stake at the track when riding 3 year-olds
- Johnny Murtagh is 2 from 7 (29%) when riding 3 year-olds at the track – he rides THE REAPER


York (C4 and RUK)


2.00 - SKY BET MOBILE FOR IPHONE NURSERY (CLASS 3) (2yo) Winner £7,439 CH4 5f

- 3 of the last 5 favourites have won (1 co-fav)
- Tim Easterby has won 2 of the 5 past renewals – he runs LAST BID and FAYR FALL
- All 5 recent winners carried 9-1 or MORE
- Brazilian jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 23% (5-22) strike-rate at the track on 2 year-olds – he rides KOOL HENRY

2.30 - SKY BET MOBILE E B F BERTOLINI FILLIES´ HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90) Winner £9,704 CH4 1m2f

- Michael Bell took this in 2007 – he runs CREME ANGLAISE this year
- 3 winning favourites in the last 7 runnings (1 joint)
- 4 of the last 7 were won by a 3 year-old
- 5 of the last 7 carried 9-3 or MORE
- 5 of the last 7 returned 7/2 or SHORTER in the betting
- William Haggas is 6 from 21 (29%) with this 3 year-olds at the track – he runs ELMAAM
- Kieren Fallon is 0 from 17 when riding 3 year-olds at the course – he rides BAQAAT

3.05 - SKY BET YORK STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £56,710 CH4 1m2f

- John Gosden took this prize in 2008 – he has TAZEEZ entered this year
- Sir Michael Stoute won this race in 2006 – he runs ELEANORA DUSE
- 3 of the last 5 went to the favourite
- 3 of the last 5 returned 2/1 or SHORTER in the betting
- 4 of the last 5 older than 3 years-old
- Barry Hills is just 1 from 30 (3%) with his older horses at the track – he runs RANSOM NOTE
- Jockey Michael Hills is just 1 from 28 (4%) when riding 4+year-olds at the course – he rides RANSOM NOTE

3.40 - SKY BET DASH (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Winner £32,345 CH4 6f

- Richard Fahey won this in 2006 and 2009 – he runs IRISH HEARTBEAT
- Barry Hills took this in 2005 and tries to follow-up with SWILLY FERRY
- Only 1 winning favourite in the last 7 renewals
- All 7 recent winners returned 9/2 or bigger in the betting
- Only 1 double-figure priced winner
- 6 of the last 7 carried 8-12 or MORE
- Sir Michael Stoute has a 22% strike-rate (10-46) at the track with his older horses – he runs ENTITLED
- Kieren Fallon is 7-38 (18%) when riding 4+year-olds at York – he gets the leg-up on HOOF IT

 

 

 

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17 replies
  1. Steve says:

    As a bit of a trends devotee this is very, very welcome! Thank you, and I look forward to this being a regular feature.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Steve – glad you like it. I’m hoping to make it a regular feature, depending on feedback.

      Matt

  2. sim sparrow says:

    Hi Matt,
    Youv’e over delivered again, looks like there’s gonna be a lot of winners sharing this weeks scoop6… lol
    All the best,
    Sim

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Haha, thanks Sim. If only it was that easy! Hopefully, we’ll snaffle a couple of extra winners over the weekend at least. 🙂

      Best,
      Matt

  3. Ed says:

    Wow, very impressed with these stats, i’ll be using some of this information in my picks for Saturday…Nice work…

    Libertyed:)

  4. Jim says:

    Hi Matt, 78 y.o. & not much betting recently due to ill health, but this looks quite interesting & would like to see it a regular item. Many thanks, Jim

  5. Jay says:

    Greatinfo as usaul, thanks. How about any of these names: Tv Horse Nuggets, Golden Trends, Race Trends Gold ?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks all for the positive comments and the name suggestions! I’ll let Andy have first choice on the name, seeing as he’s the man doing the legwork!

      Best,
      Matt

  6. Phil says:

    Matt,

    What a fantastic idea and great stats too. Something for everybody and hopefully a bag full of winners!! What about calling it Pick-n-Mix which will cover everything from forecasts to dutch’s.

    Phil

  7. Bill says:

    Very impressed I hope this does become a regular feature, appreciate the time and effort put in, I hope will improve my strike rate as well.
    Thanks
    Bill.

  8. PeterC says:

    Very impressed, Matt. You are developing a mean site here with the import of experts (not forgetting you and Gavin!).

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Peter – I’m trying to find a bit more time to do all of the ‘behind the scenes’ stuff that needs doing, which is why the help of great writers and excellent reviewers (such as yourself) are so very welcome.

      Best,
      Matt

  9. Terry says:

    Hi Matt,Glad to see some trends again,very helpful and time saving too.Good luck for saturday.Regards,Terry.

  10. Chris says:

    That’s an excellent starting framework for the day Matt/Andy, lets hope the trends
    continue,good luck for your/our bets.

  11. Andy Newton says:

    Thanks for all the good comments – it’s nice to know it’s of use and I’m sure they will highlight plenty of winners today…..ENJOY and GOOD LUCK!

  12. peter says:

    Hi matt. What a great start to these trends. Some good priced placed bets, some winners with the best being Bronze Prince. The comments on that race drew you immediate to thar horse. 16/1 was brilliant
    Thanks

  13. jay says:

    Nice stat about Easterby at York, in the nursery. Thats 3 of the last 6.

    Mind you anyone who doesnt keep an eye on Easterby horses at York, needs to give up. lol

    Thanks for the articles, look forward to reading in the future.

    Cheers Jay

Comments are closed.