Saturday TV Trends

Saturday TV Trends: 27th Jan 2024

Another massive day of horse racing this Saturday with ‘Trials Day’ at Cheltenham – their last meeting before the Festival in March. Therefore, plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase – plus last week’s cancelled Ascot Clarence House Chase has also been slotted into the bumper 8-race card.

The ITV cameras are also heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won in two of the last 8 seasons.

As always, here at GeeGeez, we've got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

12.05 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RTV

17/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/19 – Won last time out
11/19 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
11/19 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
10/19 – French bred (including 8 of last 9 winners)
10/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/19 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
5/19 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/19 – Trained by Alan King
4/19 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
4/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
3/19 – Won by a German bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
4 of the last 6 winners have been owned by JP McManus

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2023 Winner: COMFORT ZONE (J O’Brien) 2/1 fav


12.40 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RTV

19/19 – Aged 8 or younger
18/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (4 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase, 2023 Stage Star, Turners’ Novices Chase)
17/19 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
16/19 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
15/19 – Rated 128 or higher
14/19 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
13/19 – Irish bred
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/19 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
11/19 – Carried 11-2 or more
8/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/19 – French bred
4/19 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/19 – Trained by Tizzard yard
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 13 runnings)
8 of the last 10 winners aged 7 or 8

2023 Winner: STAGE STAR (Paul Nicholls) 11/4 fav

1.15 – Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV

17/19 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
17/19 – Rated 130 or higher
16/19 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
16/19 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
16/19 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/19 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
13/19 – Aged 8 or older
13/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
12/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
9/19 – Carried 10-7 or less
7/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Won by the Hobbs yard
2/19 - Won the by the Paul Nicholls yard (2 of the last 5)
2/19 - Won the by the Venetia Williams yard (2 of the last 10)
2/19 - Won the by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (2 of the last 6)

2023 Winner: IL RIDOTO (Paul Nicholls) 9/2

1.50 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

20/20 – Officially rated 151 or higher
19/20 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (10 had won)
18/20 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
18/20 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
16/20 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
15/20 – Priced 7/1 or less
15/20 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, 14 placed 8th or better)
13/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time
11/20 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
10/20 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
10/20 – Unplaced last time out
10/20 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/19 – Favourites
2/20 - Won by the Henderson yard (2 of the last 4)
2/20 - Won by the Tizzard yard
1/20 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/20 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)

10 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Note: The 2021 running was staged at Sandown

2023 Winner: AHOY SENOR (L Russell) 13/2

2.25 – Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
20/20 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
19/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
18/20 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
17/20 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
17/20 – Favourites placed
17/20 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/20 – Won their last race
14/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
13/20 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
12/20 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
12/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/20 – Favourites that won
11/20 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/20 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/20 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, 2013 -Sprinter Sacre, 2014 - Sire de Grugy, 2015 - Dodging Bullets)
4/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 6 times in all)
4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 7)
2/20– Won by the Pipe stable
2/20– Won by the Gary Moore stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (31 runnings) there have been 13 winners aged 8 years-old

The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 7/2

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005, 2017, 2023 – Renewals at Cheltenham

2023 Winner: EDITEUR DU GITE (Gary Moore) 14/1

3.00 Unibet Hurdle (Reg as the International Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m1f ITV

19/19 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
17/19 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously
16/19 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
15/19 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
14/19 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
13/19 –  Favourites placed
12/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
12/19 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/19 – Won their latest race
11/19 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
10/19 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/19 – Rated 162 or higher
7/19 – Winning distance:  4+ lengths
6/19 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
5/19 – Won by a French-bred horse
5/19 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 5)
5/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (4 of the last 9)
4/19 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies (4 of the last 9)
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
3/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
1/19 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

3.35 – McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV


17/18 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
16/18 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
16/18 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
15/18 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
14/18 – Officially rated 154 or higher
12/18 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
12/18 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/18 – Won their latest race
8/18 – Favourites that won
7/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
Paisley Park has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2023 Winner: GOLD TWEET (Gabriel Leenders) 14/1

3.35 – SSS Super Alloys Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) RTV 2m4f110y ITV

17/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
16/17 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
14/17 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
13/17 – Won their latest race
13/17 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
12/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
10/17 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
9/17 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
5/17 – Favourites that won
5/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
4/17 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/17 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2023 Winner: ROCK MY WAY (Syd Hosie) 13/2

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Sky Bet Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

13/14 – Had won over this trip before
13/14 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Aged 8 or younger
9/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/14 – Irish bred
7/14 - Winning favourites
6/14 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
2/14 – Trained by Philip Kirby
2/14 – Ridden by Sean Quinlan

2023 Winner: EPATANTE (N Henderson) 2/9 fav

2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV

13/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/14 – Winning favourite
3/14 - Trained By Ben Pauling (3 of the last 8)
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 - Ridden by Nico de Boinville
2/14 - Ridden by Daryl Jacob
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old

2023 Winner: MAXIMILIAN (Donald McCain) 13/2

3.15 –The Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV

17/18 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
15/18 – Carried 11-2 or less
14/18 – Officially rated 130 or higher
13/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/18 – Aged 9 or younger
12/18 – Unplaced favourites
12/18 – Irish bred
11/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/18 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 10)
2/18 – Trained by Alan King

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
6 of the last 18 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2023 Winner: COPPER’S CROSS (Stuart Coltherd) 16/1

 

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