Saturday TV Trends

Did you know that Barry Geraghty has a 48% strike-rate when riding over fences at Ascot? – Andy Newton looks at all the Saturday C4 races from a trends angle.

ASCOT (ATR/C4)

2.10 - Amlin 1965 Chase Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 2m3f

3 of the last 9 were won by the favourite (1 joint)
ALL 9 were aged 8 or YOUNGER – Bad news for KALAHARI KING (10) & THE SAWYER (11)
MASTER MINDED won the race 12 months ago
7 of the last 9 returned 7/1 or SHORTER in the betting
4 of the last 9 won their last race
50% of recent winners were having their first run of the season
Paul Nicholls won this in 2002, 2006 & 2010 – MASTER MINDED
Alan King won this in 2004 & 2007 – MEDERMIT
Henrietta Knight is 4 from 18 (22%) with her chasers at the track - SOMERSBY
Robert Thornton is only 1 from 22 when riding over fences here - MEDERMIT


2.45 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) Grade 2
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 2m3f110y

6 of the last 10 renewals went to the favourite (2 joint)
The last 2 winners were aged 4 years-old – RIGIDITY
ALL 10 returned 7/2 or SHORTER in the betting
7 of the 10 won their previous race
6 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season
3 of the last 10 ran at Cheltenham last time out
Paul Nicholls won this in 2010 – KING OF THE NIGHT
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2008 & 2009 – OSCAR WHISKY
The Pipe yard won the prize in 2003 – LOUGH DERG
Nicky Henderson has a 28% record (24 from 85) with his hurdlers at the track – OSCAR WHISKY
Paul Nicholls is 8 from 39 (21%) with his hurdlers at the track - KING OF THE NIGHT
Donald McCain is 2 from 9 when running hurdlers at the course – OVERTURN
David Pipe has a +£31 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at Ascot – LOUGH DERG
Barry Geraghty is 13 from 35 (37%) when riding over hurdlers at the track - OSCAR WHISKY
Jockey Noel Fehily is just 2 from 26 over hurdles here – FOR NON STOP


3.20 -
Carey Group Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+) CH4 Good 2m1f

Only 5 previous runnings
ALL 5 finished third or better in their last race
3 of the 5 race at Ascot last time out
The last 3 runnings went to the favourite
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 6 years-old – RILEYEV, DAN BREEN, GILBARRY & TORPHICHEN
The last 4 winners carried 11-1 or MORE
3 of the last 5 carried 11-6 or MORE
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2007 & 2010 – TAKEROC
Nicky Henderson won the prize in 2008 – ANQUETTA
Gary Moore’s FIX THE RIB won the race in 2009
Nicky Henderson is 11 from 28 (39%) with his chasers at the track - ANQUETTA
Barry Geraghty has a 48% strike-rate (10 from 21) when riding over fences here – ANQUETTA

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HAYDOCK (RUK/C4)

 
2.30 - betfair.com/paulnicholls "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £42,713 CH4 Good 3m

6 previous runnings
3 of the last 6 were won by the favourite (1 joint)
ALL 6 were aged 7 or younger
4 of the 6 had a previous run that season
50% won their previous race
The last 2 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out
5 of the last 6 carried 10-10 or MORE
David Pipe won this 12 months ago – DYNASTE & BUENA VISTA
Malcolm Jefferson won the race in 2008 – CAPE TRIBULATION
2 of the last 6 returned a double-figure price
Donald McCain has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track – REINDEER DIPPIN
Jonjo O’Neill is only 1 from 21 with his runners over hurdles here – SUNNYHILL BOY & SYNCHRONISED
Jockey Brian Hughes is 6 from 20 (30%) when riding over hurdles here – SA SUFFIT
Timmy Murphy is 3 from 14 (21%) when riding over hurdles at the track – RIVAL D’ESTRUVAL
Jockey Denis O’Regan is 0 from 16 over hurdles here – CAPE TRIBULATION


3.05 -
Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £112,540 CH4 Good 3m

6 previous runnings
4 of the last 6 winners were aged 8 or older
5 of the last 6 winners were placed in their previous race
4 of the last 6 winners failed to win their last race
4 of the last 6 winners had a previous outing that same season
2 of the last 6 winners ran in the Charlie Hall last time out
Paul Nicholls and Kauto Star won the race in 2006, 2007 & 2009
4 of the 6 renewals were won by the favourite
5 of the 6 winners were aged older than 6 years-old
Jockey Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2006 & 2009
Nick Williams is 3 from 7 (43%) with his chasers here – DIAMOND HARRY
Nicky Henderson is only 7 from 52 with his runners here (1 from 6 chasers) – LONG RUN
Timmy Murphy is 2 from 7 (29%) when riding over fences at the track – WEIRD AL
Paul Nicholls is 5 from 21 (24%) with his chasers here – KAUTO STAR
Donald McCain is 8 from 32 (25%) with his runners over fences here – WERID AL


3.40 - Betfair Multiples Handicap Chase
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 Good 3m

Only 4 previous runnings
1 winning favourite
3 of the 4 had a previous run that season
3 of the 4 failed to win their previous race
ALL 4 returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Two were aged 7 and two were aged 5 years-old
ALL 4 carried 11-4 or MORE
Philip Hobbs is 0 from 15 over fences here – MOSTLY BOB
Sue Smith’s yard has a 17% record at the track with their chasers - GANSEY
Jockey Brian Hughes is 3 from 12  (25%) when riding over fences here – CHEIF DAN GEORGE
Timmy Murphy is 2 from 7 (29%) when riding chasers at the track - MERIGO
Ruby Walsh is 2 from 6 over fences here - GANSEY
Aidan Coleman is 0 from 14 over fences at Haydock – SUMMERY JUSTICE
Tom O’Brien is 0 from 15 when riding over fences here – MOSTLY BOB

 

Stats and % are subject to slight changes due to racing from Ascot and Haydock on Friday

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2 replies
  1. mike says:

    Not sure that stats that are giving 5/6 horses are much help. I see no patterns in the above and they would provide little help in finding the winners, especially now I know the results!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Mike, I’m afraid you miss the point. This feature is not about giving tips – that’s not the way we work here. It’s about sharing some data in a digestible format and allowing you, the reader and bettor (and master of your own destiny!), to decide what – if anything – is material in terms of the way you bet.

      We’re always trying to ‘edutain’ (educate and entertain) here. Or at the very least add a little value. Obviously, it’s not to everyone’s tastes, but I hope you’ll at least understand where we’re coming from now, and perhaps be a little more sympathetic to our objective.

      Hope you found some winners over the weekend,
      Matt

Comments are closed.