Saturday TV Trends

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 15th Jan 2022

Some nice jumping cards to look forward to this Saturday from Warwick and Kempton, with nine races being shown LIVE on ITV4 across the two tracks.

The clear highlights on the day are the Grade 3 Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase (3.00), at Warwick– a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won three times since 2006, and at Kempton the Listed Lanzarote Hurdle (2.40) - a prize that the Nicky Henderson yard have landed three times since 2013 - is their showcase event.

As normal, here at Geegeez we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.32 – Coral ‘Fail-To-Finish’ Free Bets Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV4

8/9 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/9 – Had run at the track before (hurdles/chase)
6/9 – Won no more than twice over fences before
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
5/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Rated between 134 and 139
5/9 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
4/9 – Ran at Ludlow (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Amy Murphy
Smarty Wild won the race in 2021
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2

 

 

2.05 – Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

8 previous runnings
7/8 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
7/8 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
6/8 - Aged 8 or older
5/8 – Winning favourites
5/8 – Had won over fences at the track
Master Tommytucker won the race in 2021
Frodon won the race in 2020
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020 and 2021
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014

 

2.40 – Coral Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

20/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
17/20 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
16/20 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
14/20 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
14/20 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
14/20 – Irish (8) or French (6) bred
13/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Carried 10-11 or less
11/20 – Aged 6 years-old
9/20 – Placed favourites
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/20 -  Winning favourites
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 9)
3/20 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 34 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: the 2006 running was a dead heat between Rayshan & Buck Whaley and run at Carlisle

 

3.15 – Coral Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

Just 9 previous runnings
9/9 - Aged 8 or older
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Had run at the track before
7/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
7/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/9 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
6/9 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
5/9 – Unplaced last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites
Double Shuffle (4/1) won the race in 2021
Fingerontheswitch (15/2) won the race in 2020
Glen Rocco (11/4) won this race in 2019
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

 

 

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.18 - Alder Demain & Akers PMS Oxford Edward Courage Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m ITV4

10/10 - Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 - Had won between 0-2 times
9/10 - Aged 9 or younger
9/10 - Favourites placed
8/10 - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/10 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 - Won between 1-2 times
4/10 - Won last time out
4/10 - Had run at the track before
4/10 - Winning favourites
2/10 - Trained by Venetia Williams
2/10 - Trained by Alex Hales
Sky Pirate (6/4 fav) won the race in 2021
Winning SP 10/3 in the last 10 runnings

 

1.50 – Wigley Group Hampton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

14/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
14/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/14 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
12/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/14 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
10/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Aged 7 years-old
9/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
Next Destination (10/11) won the race in 2021

 

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
14/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Placed favourites
3/15 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune, Willoughby Court, 2017 Neptune)
2/15 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 7)
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 9)
Adrimel (7/2 fav ) won the race in 2021

 

3.00 – Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
12/16 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
12/16 – Officially rated between 129-140
12/16 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
11/16 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
11/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
10/16 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/16 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
9/16 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
8/16 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
8/16 – Favourites placed
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Trained by Alan King
Notachance (7/2 jfav) won the race in 2021
Just two winning favourites in the last 16 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

 

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

16/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
15/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
13/16 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
13/16 – Officially rated between 126-142
13/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/16 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Placed favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/16 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/16 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/16 – Winning favourites
Imperial Alcazar (5/1) won the race in 2021
Tobefair won this race in 2017
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 8 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey

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