There are many schools of thought on how Cheltenham form translates at Aintree, and of course, the real answer is that it varies from horse to horse.
But one thing that is true is that an in form horse at either meeting is a horse with a better than average chance. And that's the backbone of this simple little system for Aintree's three day Grand National meeting.
The rules are as follows:
- Ran at Cheltenham last time and finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd
- Finished 1st or 2nd in the previous race before Cheltenham
And, erm, that's it!
Over the last ten years, that system has found 48 winners from 190 runners, and shown a level stakes profit at SP of 39.62 points. At Betfair SP (and projected Betfair SP), that profit rises to 62.57 units.
Now, there have been losing years as well as winning years, so you need to beware of that. But how about improving the bottom line and reducing the number of bets?
OK then, if you only bet those qualifiers at 5/1 or more each way, you'd have returned 41.88 units of profit at SP from just 68 bets. That's the way I'll be playing this one.
Either way, the message is clear. In form horses which at least placed at the Cheltenham Festival have LIVE chances at Aintree too.