Saturday's Result :
3.35 Sandown: Sire De Grugy @ 14/1 E/W BOG 4th at 12/1 (Tracked leader until after 2nd, 2nd again next, led 5th, not fluent when pressed 3 out, soon headed, no chance with winner, lost 2nd at the last, weakened run-in)
Monday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG.
Well, firstly, his trainer, Michael Dods has a record of 26 winners from 205 runners in Ayr handicaps since the start of the 2010 campaign and this 12.7% strike rate has generated 118.5pts of level stakes profit, broken down as follows...
- male runners are 21/168 (12.5% SR) for 127.9pts (+76.1% ROI)
- on good / good to firm ground, they are 12/113 (10.6% SR) for 103.1pts (+91.2% ROI)
- 4 to 6 yr olds are 15/109 (13.8% SR) for 145.6pts (+133.5% ROI)
- those sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 price range are 16/71 (22.5% SR) for 16.7pts (+23.6% ROI)
- those with 11 to 16 previous runs under their belts are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 166.2pts (+426.1% ROI)
The next point to note is that Sea Wolf is taking a step down in class today and over the last six seasons, Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down a grade are 43/334 (12.9% SR) for 141.1pts (+42.2% ROI) with 4yr olds winning 12 of 74 (16.2% SR) for 157.5pts (+212.9% ROI) and those running here at Ayr are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 146.1pts (+312.6% ROI)
Michael's 4 yr olds dropping down a grade to run in Ayr handicaps are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 138.3pts (+728.1% ROI)
And whilst Sea Wolf's 170-day absence from the track might be a negative for some people, Michael Dods does have a decent record at getting his runners ready first time out. During the April to October months over the last six years, his flat handicappers running after a break of 4 to 8 months are 22 from 148 (14.9% SR) for 107.4pts (+72.6% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those runners are...
- 18/112 (16.1% SR) for 89.1pts (+79.5% ROI) in April
- 15/62 (24.2% SR) for 39.5pts (+63.7% ROI) when sent off at 9/4 to 8/1
- 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 38.3pts (+83.2% ROI) when ridden by Paul Mulrennan
- 8/41 (19.5% SR) for 73pts (+177.9% ROI) as 4 yr olds
The Dods/Mulrennan/April angle with horses priced at 9/4 to 8/1 is worth 10 winners from 23 (43.5% SR) and level stakes profits of 40.3pts (+175.2% ROI), of which 3/4 yr olds are 7/14 (50% SR) for 33.6pts (+240.2% ROI)
So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Ladbrokes, Hills, Boylesports and/or BetVictor, who were the five market leaders at 7.20am. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. "Normal" service timings will be resumed this evening, now I've caught up on some sleep!