Stat of the Day

SotD, Monday 27th June 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.55 Newmarket : So Beloved @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Led when came into view 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, kept on same pace, strugled to pick up in the deteriorating conditions)

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Paladin at 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner just 5 days ago over a mile on the A/W at Kempton, marking somewhat of a return to form. He was off the track for 561 days before returning to action and stringing together a series of good runs when finishing 2221 in consecutive outings last summer from May to August and it is hoped he's embarking on another run like that.

After that win, he found himself well in the grasp of the handicapper and failed to even place in his next 6 contests before taking advantage of a dropping mark to score off a rating of just 60 last time out (he had won off 67 last summer!) and with that race at Kempton last Wednesday being an apprentices' handicap, there's no penalty for the win and he gets to go off 60 again today.

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His chances are further boosted by the positive booking of the in-form Martin Lane to take the ride, Martin is 7/25 in the last fortnight and even better, 4/10 in the last week.

And stat-wise...runners at Wolverhampton priced at 10/11 to 7/1 who failed to make the frame in three or more successive races prior to a win on the A/W last time out 3-30 days ago are 123/469 (26.2% SR) for 86.3pts (+18.4% ROI) profit since the start of 2009.

Of those 469 runners...

  • Those now rated (OR) 0 to 7lbs higher are 116/434 (26.7%) for 95.1pts (+21.9%)
  • Those who won by 2L or less LTO are 89/341 (26.1%) for 74.3pts (+21.8%)
  • Those running at the same trip as LTO or stepping up by just 0.5f are 81/302 (26.8%) for 82.2pts (+27.2%)

AND...those who fit all three of the above subsets are 54/216 (25% SR) for 52.7pts (24.4% ROI) profit.

...meaning that today's play is a 1pt win bet on Paladin at 3/1 BOG , a price available in around a half dozen places at 11.20pm, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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