Stat of the Day

SotD, Monday 30th May 2016

Saturday's Result :

4.00 Chester : Heir To A Throne @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, ran on gamely to hold on by a head)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Terhaal at 9/4 BOG

Why?

Leicester is a fairly tight track track and not all jockeys cope with it as well as otthers, but Ryan Moore seems to fare well here, especially if the market suggests he's in with a chance. This "feeling" manifests itself into 48 winners from 141 (34% SR) runners sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter and although the overall profit of 12pts (+8.5% ROI) is a modest return for SotD purposes, it's a good starting point.

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If we now look at Terhaal's trainer, David O'Meara, we see that his Leicester runners subjected that same 7/1 cut off point also have very similar strike rate to Ryan Moore's with 9 winners from 26 (34.6% SR) generating 19.4pts (+74.5% ROI) and that's without trainer & jockey propping each others figures up, as they've never previously combined here at Leicester.

In fact, Ryan hasn't ridden for David for almost 11 months, but the last time they paired up, Birdman was a winner at Haydock.  So, on that basis, the booking is interesting if nothing else!

Terhaal comes here having finished as runner-up last time out, beaten by just a length and a half six weeks ago on his seasonal reappearance after a 171 day absence. He's sure to come on for the run and it's worth noting that the winner of that race has since stepped up two levels to Class 2 to win off a mark off 88, meaning Terhaal might be underestimated of 78.

And since 2008, David O'Meara's Class 3/4 Flat handicappers running with just 1 run under their belts in the previous 90 days are 29/163 (17.8% SR) for blind level stakes profits of 41.7pts at an ROI of 25.6% and those figures in relation to this race are as follows...

  • on good to soft through to good to firm : 27/140 (19.3% SR) for 57.2pts (+40.9% ROI)
  • males are 37/131 (20.6% SR) for 67.7pts (+51.7% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 38.4pts (+36.2% ROI)
  • those last seen 16-60 days ago are 16/105 (15.2% SR) for 48.9pts (+46.6% ROI)
  • since the start of 2014 : 19/97 (19.6% SR) for 57pts (+58.7% ROI)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 22/59 (37.3% SR) for 38.6pts (+65.4% ROI)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 39.9pts (+73.8% ROI)
  • at trips of 8.5 to 10.5f : 12/34 (35.3% SR) for 55pts (+161.7% ROI)
  • those who were runners-up LTO are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 15.33pts (+118% ROI)
  • and here at Leicester, 2 winners from 4 (50% SR) for 2.87pts at an ROI of 71.8%

...so the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Terhaal at 9/4 BOG which was available with Boylesports, Coral, Hills & Paddy Power at 10.15pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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