SOTD Weekly Updates

SotD Update, 15th to 20th February 2016

On the face of it, a 0 from 4 week doesn't look great. I don't dispute that by any means. However, in my defence, three of our four made the frame and I was quietly confident about the two that didn't run, but what can you do?

Basically, the bottom line took a hit, but I'm happy enough with the picks (Chelwood Gate should have won, got a poor ride and a win there gives us +0.5pts on the week!) and the selection procedure.

There's always next week!

Selections & Results: 15/02/16 to 20/02/16

15/02: Askamore Darsi (adv 5/2 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
16/02: Kelly's Finest (adv 8/1 BOG) : non-runner
17/02: Star Links (adv 4/1 BOG) : 6th at 3/1
18/02: Takingrisks (adv 7/2 BOG) : non-runner
19/02: Chelwood Gate (adv 7/2 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
20/02: Cloudy Too (adv 11/2 BOG) : 3rd at 11/2

15/02/16 to 20/02/16 :
0 winning bets from 4 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -4.00pts

2 winners from 16 = 12.5% SR
P/L: -3.00pts
ROI = -18.75%

377 winners from 1335 = 28.24% S.R
P/L: +319.97pts
ROI: +23.97%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here

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7 replies
  1. Norman Ezbedeneiger says:

    Agreed and fair enough but we haven’t made a decent profit for more than 5 consecutive months now… the cash is just flowing out…

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Simon, P/L is just profit made. A winner at 3/1 gives a P/L figure of +3

  2. Simon B says:

    So how would you have arrived at +0.5 if Chelwood Gate had won? -0.5 without stakes returned?

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Chelwood Gate was advised at 7/2 and would therefore have generated 3.5pts profit. The other three losers would have cost 3pts.

  3. Matt Bisogno says:

    What can you do indeed? I was just looking at some of the numbers from last year in response to a new subscriber enquiry, and they’re worth adding here.

    Hi [name removed],

    Strike rate is 28.43%, more details here:

    We’re actually in our worse run since inception currently, but even now we’re showing an ROI of 24.49% overall. Nothing in the selection methodology has changed so we anticipate a return to form soon. As I’m fond of saying, “After a good run, expect a bad run; after a bad run, expect a good run”.

    (We made almost 70 points between June and August, and over 105 in the first eight months of 2015. We knew we were due a correction, as per the quote above).

    Now, clearly, that’s cold comfort if you’ve joined us in the last six months or so, and both Chris and I feel your frustration acutely (we share it, of course).

    As Chris says, nothing in the approach has changed. The same approach that netted 70 points in three months, and a more reflective 105 points over the first eight months of last year. We had a fantastic run, since which we’ve had a frustrating one.

    It’s testament to the value in the selections that, despite everything, the downturn is ‘only’ 27.25 points. Clearly that’s disappointing, but in context it’s more tolerable. Not tolerable, but more tolerable.

    Your support makes things a little easier, and I know Chris values the general forbearance that you have collectively shown. That reflects the core values of our community, and I thank you for it too.

    As I wrote to the enquirer above, let’s hope for a return to form soon. It’s overdue, and it’s not for want of trying.

    Best Regards to all,

  4. Chris Worrall says:

    Yes, indeed, I’m very grateful for the general patience, good grace and leniency displayed towards me by our members. It certainly says plenty to me about the type of people I’m trying to provide a service to.

    I do share and feel the pain of the current downturn, as I personally back every single one of my selections with real money, so its in my interests to find some winners, I’m not just churning out a daily piece as part of “my job”.

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