Stat Of The Day

SotD Update, 18th to 23rd December 2017

Two decent priced (5/1 & 10/3) winners from six and better performances from the "losers" was a quick turn around from the previous week's poor 0/4 return. It meant that not only did we recoup last week's losses, but we also managed to add a little more icing to our cake.

It also means that with just 5 more picks to go this year, our worst case scenarios are a 7.91pt profit for the month of December and just over 108pts for the year. I will, of course, be aiming/hoping for more than that, as I attempt to put a few cherries on the top of the icing that we've put on our metaphorical cake!

Selections & Results : 18/12/17 to 23/12/17 :

18/12 : Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG WON at 5/2
19/12 : Mach One @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/8
20/12 : Black Prince @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 5/2
21/12 : Choral Clan @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1
22/12 : Gracious John @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1
23/12 : Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG fell at 10/3

18/12/17 to 23/12/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +4.33pts

December 2017:
6 winners from 18 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +12.91pts
ROI = +71.72%

2017 so far:
83 winners from 291 = 28.52% SR
P/L: +113.06pts
ROI = +38.85%

Overall:
523 winners from 1882 = 27.79% S.R
P/L: +487.78pts
ROI: +25.92%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

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7 replies
  1. jethro says:

    A very Merry Christmas to you Chris, along with Matt and all the Geegeez team! Another great year for me from an investment perspective, apart from being shut down by one bookie and restricted by another two, which is probably largely due to your SotD results! Heyho, it’s a problem I can work around…
    Keep up the great work, enjoy your Christmas tucker and another Chakisto (2016) or Beau Lake (2014) type winner on Boxing Day would be just wonderful. Ha ha… Cheers

    Reply
      • reynard says:

        please could you tell us what the figures are for betfair starting price this year?
        as you must realize people will not get BOG for long as bookies will stop it after this sort of win rate.
        i know the overall profit rate will drop but it would more realistic + honest for people to see the true return.

        Reply
        • Chris Worrall says:

          The simple answer is no, sorry.
          I don’t keep records to anything but BOG odds.

          I’ve been doing this for over 6 years and the odds I quote are the odds I get, they aren’t always the best available.
          As for realism & honesty, nobody has previously suggested the figures lack either trait, so I’m assuming the majority of our readers achieve similar results to us.

          Merry Xmas,
          Chris.

          Reply
          • shilling says:

            I’m confused. I know you always quote the BOG figure before the race but you go on to say ” all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP.”,

          • Chris Worrall says:

            When I quote the stats relating to a pick, I use Betfair SP, as it’s a closer approximation to BOG than SP is.

            If you read the rest of the line you’ve begun to quote, it says….“all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!”

            If trainer x has a +25pts profit at track y to betfair SP, that’s what I’ll tell you, but taking BOG or even early non-BOG or exchange will beat that in the long run, but because BOG/early odds aren’t recorded, I have to use something measurable to quantify a stat.

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