Stat Of The Day

SotD Update, 7th to 12th May 2018

It was a better week this week, but still not ideal. Four placers and one fourth place runner only beaten by a length gave us grounds for encouragement, but it was left to Saturday's runner to ensure we came out of the week with something to show for our efforts.

Sadly a 10p Rule 4 deduction meant we only got 5.4/1 about the winner, but that was (a) enough to stop the losing run and (b) enough to ensure a small profit from the week.

We're currently 4.6pts down for May, but with only half of the month left, I'm confident of making May our ninth profitable month in a row. Let's not forget it's a marathon and not a sprint.

Selections & Results : 07/05/18 to 12/05/18 

07/05 : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2
08/05: Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1
09/05 : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1
10/05 : Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/8
11/05 : The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2
12/05 : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4

07/05/18 to 12/05/18  :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.40pts

May 2018 :
1 winner from 11 = 9.09% SR
P/L: -4.60pts
ROI = -41.82%

2018 to date :
28 winners from 104 = 26.92% SR
P/L: +30.91pts
ROI = +29.72%

Overall:
551 winners from 1989 = 27.70% S.R
P/L: +518.70pts
ROI: +26.08%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

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8 replies
  1. cathmcgowan says:

    I’m not convinced this is truly honest. You are using the best possible price, and BOG to calculate your P/L figures. We all know many bookies will gub sooner or later (often sooner) if you take early prices, especially if you often beat the SP by a significant difference.

    The postscript under each tip says this :

    P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

    How does this apply?? You are not quoting to BSP if you are using 5.4/1 for Stoniic, and this seems to be the practice.

    Can someone from this site explain, please?

    Reply
    • Chris Worrall says:

      1. I quote the prices I get. Often better odds are available elsewhere.

      2. Re: the postscript, it’s very simple.
      If a trainer has 25 wins from 100 for 25pts profit at ISP and 35pts at BFSP, when using his stats to highlight my bet, I will use the 35pts.
      The reason for this is that I never bet at ISP (of BFSP for that matter), but my returns will be nearer to the higher figure (but generally better)

      As for questioning my honesty, that’s quite offensive. I’ve been doing this for 6.5 years now and the vast majority of our readers get the same prices I quote and I’d say that pretty much all of them get better than Betfair SP.

      You (and any else on here for that matter) can gripe about not getting the exact price themselves, they can gripe about the selections themselves or the process I’ve used to get there, but I won’t have anyone challenging my integrity. Geegeez is the most honest and open racing website you’ll ever find and I’d not be employed if there was even a whiff of the books being cooked.

      Miffed? You bet.

      Reply
  2. Bazcoe says:

    I didn’t manage to get that price either but that’s the way it is. Might possibly worth checking exchange price in those circumstances even at 2 or 5% commission. Over the last 3 years I have made money so am grateful for the service.

    Reply
  3. ascottripper says:

    Chris, Perhaps the real issue here is that in an earlier post (I’m looking at 26th March) you say:

    “… but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!”

    So for the period 7-12th May, with one winner at BFSP of 4.1 (Stonific), the week was -1.9, not +0.4, using BFSP as the arbiter, as you calculated. And I have always assumed that you used BFSP, not just for analysis purposes, but reporting too (certainly this was what was stated in the early days, but has it changed?)

    Underlying all of this though, is that at what seems to be an average strike rate of around 30%, selections at early prices of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2, 3/1 (this week, so far) are not going to make overall profits, either at early prices or BFSP (I know sometimes prices go out, but those selections do win much less often, obviously).

    Reply
    • Chris Worrall says:

      No, you’ve got it completely wrong.

      If trainer x has a 25% strike rate at a track and that has generated 100pts at SP and 125pts at Betfair SP, I’m quoting the latter to back up my selection, because I never bet at SP, but if I could only bet late, I’d use BFSP.

      However, I’m getting on at better than betfair SP, so expect to make even more profit than the stats I use to back up the selection.

      As for taking a snapshot of this week’s odds, the average price we play at is more like 7/2. Last week it was 4/1.

      The real issue as you opened with is the negative dissection of a perfectly good service by people who haven’t taken the time to dig a little deeper.

      Reply

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