SOTD Weekly Updates

SotD Update, 8th to 13th October 2018

Six picks and no winners in a frustrating / unlucky / poor * (delete/apply as applicable depending on your personal viewpoint) week.

You'll each have your own take on it, but mine is that it was frustrating, but satisfying in a perverse sort of way. Handy Hollow was travelling well before unseating his rider and the other five picks all made the frame, including three runners-up.

If we can start talking with our heads rather than our wallets, you'll know we're backing the right sort of horses if they're all on the premises. The fact that 5 of the 6 went off shorter than we backed them at (the other went off at advised odds) also tell us we're backing horses that plenty others fancy too.

The bottom line is very simple, we won't win every day or every week or even every month, but so far we've won every year and I fully intend to do that again this year. You should only be panicking now if you've not got a proper structured, disciplined bankroll in place.

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I'll wrap this week's report up by being quite blunt : if you can't handle some runs of losers then this isn't for you. October hasn't been the best from a P/L point of view, but the fact that I ended September with a 6 from 12 run shows how easily it can change.

Selections & Results : 08/10/18 to 13/10/18

08/10 : Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2
09/10 : Chitra @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2
10/10 : Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1
11/10 : Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG UR at 9/4
12/10 : Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
13/10 :Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4

08/10/18 to 13/10/18 :
0 winning bet from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

October 2018 :
1 winner from 11 = 9.09% SR
P/L: -6.67pts
ROI = -60.64%

2018 to date :
52 winners from 230 = 22.61% SR
P/L: +5.87pts
ROI = +2.55%

575 winners from 2115 = 27.19% S.R
P/L: +492.11pts
ROI: +23.27%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

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5 replies
  1. Avatar
    Matt Bisogno says:

    Keep on keeping on, Chris. They’re all well researched, well thought out bets, and none of us is immune to losing runs. The fact that the service only has six picks a week means the runs can ‘feel’ longer than they are, in terms of selections.

    To newcomers to the service, or those uncertain of how things might go, please do either adopt a watching brief for a while, or reduce your stakes.

    Remember, at the end of the day, it is the responsibility of each of us to bet as we see fit. If we decide to follow someone else’s advices, WE DECIDED THAT.

    Do not ever, ever, ever blame someone else. Nobody has taken pennies or pounds from your pocket and forced you to place a bet. We are all grown ups and we all have free will.

    I’m sorry to labour that point but, if you’re unhappy with something like this, the gift is entirely yours to change it.


  2. Avatar
    therams1962 says:

    nobody likes losing but i think most understand losing runs happen .Maybe you should do a piece on sotd expected losing runs at the around 28% strike rate and how you come to the figures .

    • Avatar
      Chris Worrall says:

      I think somebody far more intelligent than me has written something about longest expected losing runs, I’ll try to find it.

      But what did you mean by “…how you come to the figures…”, please ?

  3. Avatar
    therams1962 says:

    Ment how you come to expected losing runs there is a formula I do believe .

    • Avatar
      therams1962 says:

      I think there maybe an online calculator of my memory services me correct given that you know the strike rate .

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