Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2015

I went with Gowanharry on Saturday, partly because of trainer Micheal Dods's record in handicaps at Ayr and with his two runners finishing 1st and 2nd in our featured race, the proof was in the proverbial pudding.

To my naked eye, the margin of victory looked more than the official neck declared and thankfully it was our runner that prevailed and she appealed to still have something in hand at the finish.

She had been well supported thoughout the day, which made our advised 11/4 BOG odds look very good indeed, as she was returned a 6/4 winner.

That meant we had 4 winners from 6 last week, but Monday starts a new week, the slate is wiped clean and we start all over again in the...

6.00 Thirsk :

A 10-runner, Class 4 , 5 furlong sprint for 2 yr olds on good to firm ground where the presence of a very short favourite means we can avail ourselves of some of the 5/1 BOG on offer for Ralph (Raif) Beckett's colt Point of Woods, who aims to go one better than when rattling the crossbar at York a little over a fortnight ago.

Regular readers of my column will know that Mondays are generally low on quality, numbers of runners and potential statistical angles to explore. They also know that I'm quite fond of using trainers like Ralph Beckett, because he has such a large number of runners historically to work from.

And so, on another tricky Monday, we're back with Ralph and the obvious starting point, which is something I've advised you to do in the past...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...back all his runners!

Really. Back them all. And if you'd done so since the start of 2008, this is where'd you be : 493 winners from 3044 bets, a very healthy 16.2% strike rate bearing level stakes profits (LSP) of some 567.6pts at an ROI of 18.7%. These are truly remarkable figures from blindly backing around 400 per year, but I do appreciate that might be a little too much action for some of you, so we'll break the 3044 bets down as follows...

  • non-hcps : 271/1591 (17% SR) for 448.6pts (+28.2% ROI)
  • maidens : 215/1160 (18.5% SR) for 322.5pts (+27.8% ROI)
  • 2 yr olds  : 143/938 (15.2% SR) for 292.6pts (+31.2% ROI)
  • Class 4 : 119/784 (15.2% SR) for 101 pts at an ROI of 12.9%

For a small microsystem generating around 85-90 bets a year, backing Ralph Beckett's 2yo maidens (like Point of Woods!) gives 108 winners from 666 (16.2% SR, in line with his overall SR) and profits of 271.5pts (+40.8% ROI).

Point of Woods is Ralph's only runner here at Thirsk today and since 2008, he has sent 1386 horses to run on thier own at a track and the 248 winners givess a very respectable 17.9% win ratio that has so far generated 335.7pts of profit at an ROI of 24.2%, which is very good indeed. It should also be noted that of those 1386 sole travellers, 590 of them were Ralph's only runner of the day like Point of Woods is today.

Of those 590 single entrants, 117 (19.8% SR) have been winners and they have produced LSP of 170.3pts at an ROI of 28.9% to date.

Point of Woods is by Showcasing, whose offsapring have done really well over the last two seasons, since his first foal hit the track in April 2014. TO be more precise, his progeny are 79/474 (16.7% SR) for 22.6pts profits (+47% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • 2yr olds : 59/309 (18.1% SR) for 168.1pts (+54.4% ROI)
  • maidens : 41/219 (18.7% SR) for 160pts (+73.1% ROI)
  • 2yo maidens : 34/185 (18.4% SR) for 140.3pts (+75.8% ROI)
  • 5 furlong races  : 30/159 (18.9% SR) for 49.3pts (+31% ROI)
  • good to firm ground : 16/137 (11.7% SR) for 87.6pts (+63.9% ROI)
  • Class 4 races  :14/76 (18.4% SR) for 20pts (+26.3% ROI)

The strike rates for all those angles are pretty consistent and all produce decent profits. Unfortunately if you attempt to combine more than a couple of the elements above, it makes your sample size too small too work with, but with a slight relaxation of the criteria, I have a workable micro as follows...

Showcasing's 2yo maidens at 5-6 furlongs on ground ranging from Good to Soft through to Good to Firm at Classes 3 to 5 are 19/107 (17.8% SR) for 75pts (+70.1% ROI), with those priced at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 31.9pts (+83.9% ROI).

And that's your lot for Monday!

I've taken 5/1 BOG about Point of Woods from the Betfair Sportsbook and as of 1.00am, it was also available from Bet365, with many firms not yet quoting on the race.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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13 replies
  1. Doshtosh says:

    And the beat goes on! Was having a nightmare of a day, (and though I shouldn’t have got into that situation) it’s all tidy, again, thanks to your wisdom and skill, Chris, and my good fortune to be part of this service. Thank you and thank God!

  2. dolphin68 says:

    Great stuff Chris…Just watched the race and pre race the importance of the draw was highlighted (as well as on SportingLife comment below the race card) that a high draw is an advantage at Thirsk? Didn’t seem to be the case in this race as 1 and 2 home came out of the low draws. Its only one race but is there a bias at Thirsk?

    Once again great way to kick the week Chris….

    Martin

    • Chris Worrall says:

      It’s each to their own opinion, but I’m highly sceptical about draw bias and whether it even exists.
      And if it does, it’s certainly over played.

      A bad horse will run badly from any stall.

      • Chris Worrall says:

        And the stalls are what? 3 feet wide?
        So stall 11 is 10 yards deeper into the track and if Stall 1 runs in a perfect straight line along the rail to the post in a 5f race, he runs 1100 yards.

        If the horse in stall 11 runs in a straight line to that same point ie the winning post by the rail, he has to run 1100 yards and 1.64 inches, according to Pythagoras.

        Draw bias?
        Draw your own conclusions.

        Low numbers win more races, because there’s always horses in those stalls!

        • dolphin68 says:

          Cheers for that Chris….draw bias is quite often talked about as an important factor but apart from Chester, Pontefract and Beverley it does seem at times to be overstated as you’ve alluded to. Many thanks for your insightful comments (as usual…you should be on the morning line!)

          Martin

          • Chris Worrall says:

            Hmmmm, Morning Line? No thanks, I’m not keen on dumbing down for Channel 4! 😀
            And as for Chester… I’m still not as convinced as most are.

            Front runner in stall 4 still gets to the bend quicker than one slow away in stall one.
            You may or may not be surprised that I was a maths student and as I used Pythagoras theory to disprove draw bias on a straight track, lets think about Chester, which is essentially round (of sorts!).

            A horse from stall 1 can’t hit that first bend at the same pace as one from wider without being forced wide and leaving a gap on the inside. At full tilt the horses in 4 to 6 have a better chance of maintaining a tight line around the rail, due to the angles.

            And the only reason we don’t see more of it, is because we’re told there’s a bias and the jockeys ride to the alleged bias.

            I’m not the best at reading form or the make-up of a race, Matt beats me hands down every time, but the maths of a race is my area and I believe that it’s down the way a horse runs/is ridden more than any track bias.

  3. Downwave says:

    I followed every tip last week and was quids in, today I opted out due to the draw bias. Lesson learned. Well done, where are we tomorrow!!

  4. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Chris…

    A late reply to your comment re: Draw bias/Chester. Your cogent comment when one thinks about it makes a lot of sense and intuitively can’t be argued with. Thank you for this….certainly will make me think about percieved draw biases in a different way.

    The Morning Line comment was meant as a compliment…although I take your sentiment about the programme in its current format. It could certainly benefit from alternative view points such as yours Chris.

    Well done on your SoTD winner today!

    Best Martin

    • Chris Worrall says:

      I know it was intended as a compliment and I took it as such, so thanks for that.
      I just couldn’t resist a free hit at C4.

      Perhaps they need a dour, cynical working class Lancastrian to replace Gok Wan.
      Seriously, Gok F@(k1n6 Wan? There are no words…

      • dolphin68 says:

        I’ve got nothing against Gok Wan personally….but I hate it when he shows up on C4 racing….I don’t want to know about the bloody fashions of the day….I’m watching it for the racing!

        I’d add shrewd and canny to your list of working class attributes Chris.

        Best Martin

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