Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.35 Sandown : Barney Roy @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Held up disputing 5th, headway chasing leaders on outside 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, strong challenge near finish, just failed by a nose (or half a nostril as it looked on the photo!).

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Braes of Lochalsh9/2 BOG

Why?

Before I explain more about this pick, I want to give you advance warning about Tuesday's pick, which will appear later than usual (either late Monday or early Tuesday). I'm at my son's graduation in Newcastle all day Monday, so will be starting my research much later than usual after the long drive home.

And now to our runner himself, a 6 yr old gelding who is no stranger to Ayr, having won this very race 2 years ago. he comes here in really good nick, having finished as a runner-up in each of his last three starts, including a course and distance run two starts ago when he was just touched off in a contest two grades higher than today.

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To date, he hes 2 wins and 5 further places from 11 starts here, so he clearly likes the place, he has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 C&D efforts, of which he's 2 from 2 in July.

Some people might think that the three successive runner-up finishes is worrying and that he's not getting any better, but I see it a little differently (of course!) because...

...2012-17 / UK Flat handicaps / horses with a 222 formline are 79/328 (24.1% SR) for 82.1pts (+25% ROI), including of note today...

  • those last seen 4 to 50 days ago : 72/285 (25.3%) for 102.9pts (+36.1%)
  • those priced at Evens to 7/1 are 71/236 (30.1%) for 75.9pts (+32.2%)
  • males are 53/230 (23%) for 62.2pts (+27.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/100 (33%) for 42pts (+42%)
  • 6 yr olds are 7/34 (20.6%) for 11.4pts (+33.5%)
  • here at Ayr, they are 4/16 (25%) for 9.53pts (+59.5%)
  • and over this 1m5f trip : 2/4 (50%) for 1.27pts (+31.8%)

AND...from the above : those priced at Evs to 7/1 some 4-50 dslr are 64/212 (30.2% SR) for 77.7pts (+36.7% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Braes of Lochalsh @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfred, Betway, Totesport, 10Bet & 188Bet at 6.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ayr...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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