Stat of the Day, 11th January 2016
Saturday's Result :
3.45 Kempton : Hollywood All Star @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (In touch, chased leaders 5th, ridden to challenge 2 out, kept on same pace approaching last)
Monday's runner goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Little Stampy @ 3/1 BOG
There's not much in the way of decent form on offer here today, but this 5 yr old mare was a course and distance winner last out on what was her very first trip to the UK. The Irish raider was a winner at Tramore over today's trip back in August 2014 before enduring a losing streak of 9 races over a 16 month period, in which she didn't even muster a top 3 finish before that win on her introduction to Tapeta 24 days ago.
She got home by a neck, staying on well to lead late on, suggesting she may well have had something in hand and that a 3lb rise might not anchor her just yet. That win last time out interests me, as she becomes one of my "back to form" runners that I like to back here at Wolverhampton. The criteria for qualification look complicated on paper, but they're really not!
I need: LTO A/W winners 1-30 days ago / unplaced in each of previous 3 (or more) runs before the win / now priced at 2-1 to 6-1 here at Wolverhampton.
Such runners are 78/327 (23.9% SR) for 76.6pts (+23.4% ROI) over the last 7 years and with today's contest firmly in mind, here are ten profitable angles from those 327 runners...
1. Those who won by less than 2 lengths LTO are 63/250 (25.2% SR) for 80.5pts (+32.2% ROI)
2. 4 to 8 yr olds are 55/211 (26.1% SR) for 84.3pts (+40% ROI)
3. Those who ran here at Wolverhampton LTO are 52/206 (25.2% SR) for 54.2pts (+26.3% ROI)
4. Those running over the same trip as LTO are 53/197 (26.9% SR) for 79.6pts (+40.4% ROI)
5. Those rated (OR) 65 or less are 52/195 (26.7% SR) for 82.4pts (+42.3% ROI)
6. Class 6/7 runners are 44/175 (25.1% SR) for 54.4pts (+31.1% ROI)
7. Females are 19/79 (24.1% SR) for 21.6pts (+27.3% ROI)
8. Those last seen 21 to 30 days ago are 24/71 (33.8% SR) for 51.4pts (+72.4% ROI)
9. Those racing over 1m4f and beyond are 15/52 (28.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+60% ROI)
10. Those raised 3lbs for the LTO win are 13/49 (26.5% SR) for 17.3pts (+35.3% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 12.50am is...
A 1pt win bet on Little Stampy and that's at 3/1 BOG with either Bet365, BetVictor or betfair, whilst Ladbrokes offer the same, but are non-BOG until later this morning. To see your preferred bookie's prices, you can always...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS