Stat of the Day, 12th January 2015
The bare result from Saturday's race tells you that our 6/1 BOG (5.1/1 after a Rule 4 deduction) drifted in the market to an SP on 13/2 and went on to win by 8 lengths pulling further clear.
Those who didn't see the race might not know that our runner was in third place approaching the last fence with a 2 lengths deficit to make up (although he was closing in at the time), when the second place horse fell on landing, taking the leader out with him.
This, of course put the race on a plate for our pick, who had actually jumped the last best of all, and he stretched away to win comfortably. There are two schools of thought here, one says we got very lucky (but I think we deserve a slice of luck) and the other says that Firth of the Clyde was travelling better than the leaders and would/could have caught them anyway.
I don't think the two opinions are mutually exclusive and both are probably partially true. Nevertheless, it was a welcome 6.5pts profit on the day, which sets us up nicely for the coming week, where I kick things off in the...
Where, on a poor day's racing bereft of my usual piles of stats to choose from, an 11/4 BOG bet on Dawson City looks my best option.
I do have some relevant stats relating to the breeding/suitability of this horse for this race and they are the main strands of today's piece, but before I get to those numbers, I'd like to draw you to our interactive racecard for this contest (click here to see it).
On that card, you'll see that our selection is rated second on our SR ratings, which have an excellent record for finding winners from top-3 rated horses.
Then, if you click to see the Instant Expert tab, you'll be presented with a table full of data where the green figures for Dawson City stand out, telling you that he has won on soft ground, at this class, at this trip and in this size of field, suggesting that conditions will suit our runner ideally today.
All of this information is available to Gold Subscribers every day (click here for more details on how you could receive this data on a daily basis), but what isn't obvious is how the horse's breeding should stand him in good stead, both generally speaking and also with this particular race in mind.
The horse was sired by Midnight Legend...
...a sire that many of you know I like to follow in certain conditions, but the basics are that his offspring have won 129 hurdles races since 2009. That's from 1094 overall attempts at a strike rate of 11.8%. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 270.3pts at an ROI of 24.7%
Let's take a closer look at our runner's entry into this race...
Dawson City is a 6yr old carrying 11-8 in a Class 4 Handicap hurdle over 3m 1.5f on soft ground and we already know from above that his siblings are 129/1094 over hurdles, but with this race in mind...
In handicaps : 70/545 (12.8% SR) for 225.9pts (+41.5% ROI) and we can analyse those 545 runners as follows :
Class 3 or 4 races : 48/288 (16.7% SR) for 276.7pts (+96.1% ROI)
Horses aged 5/6 : 39/237 (16.5% SR) for 125.4pts (+52.9% ROI)
Carrying 11-6 or more : 27/161 (16.8% SR) for 188.7pts (+117.2% ROI)
On soft ground : 24/94 (25.5% SR) for 103pts (+109.6% ROI)
Here at Plumpton : 4/16 (25% SR) for 3.8pts (23.8% ROI)
Obviously with all those sunsets proving profitable, you can mix and match them to make your own micro-systems, but I don't have the time nor the space to list all the permutations for you but I will close this section by combining the above in context of today's race by telling you that...
Midnight Legend's offspring aged 5/6 in Class 3/4 Handicap Hurdle races carrying 11-6 or more are 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 96.1pts (+174.7% ROI) from which theres'a 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 65.2pts (+543% ROI) record on soft ground.
Dawson City tackled 3m+ for the first time last time out and he stayed on strongly to win by a length and three quarters and a similar effort should be enough here today. The 3rd placed horse that day, Cash Injection, was beaten by 11 lengths, but has since gone on to win, hopefully franking the form for our runner here.
It's the lower end of the market for SotD purposes, but i'm confident that we'll be making 2.75pts today from a 1pt win on Dawson City at 11/4 BOG, available at both Boylesports & Hills, whilst Ladbrokes are a straight 11/4 and they go BOG at 9.00am.
As usual, the best thing to do, is to...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS