Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.00 Catterick : Mr Globetrotter @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 Tracked leaders, led 4f out, driven 5 lengths clear over 2f out, ran on strongly to win by 6 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Haymarket @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding may not have won for a while, but he is the only course and distance winner in this field (achieved with some cut in the ground too) and did look like returning to some form last time out, 11 days ago, when third of ten at Hamilton.

He was just over 2.5 lengths behind the front pair that day, despite not getting a clear run late on and having to come back from four months off the track and it was, in fact, his first run on grass for over 8 months, so it wouldn't be too unrealistic to expect him to go a little better today.

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The runner-up has since turned back on and won at this distance, so hopefully, the form works outs here for us.

Today's jockey PJ McDonald might not be a household name to many of you, but he's having the time of life here in Western Scotland this season, riding 8 winners from 15 rides (47.1% SR) here at Ayr already this season and a £10 stake on each would have made you £254 profit at an ROI of some 149.5%, and of these 17 rides...

  • he is 7/15 (46.7%) for 25.8pts (+172.3%) in handicaps
  • 8/9 (88.9%) for 33.4pts (+371.1%) on horses priced at 9/1 and shorter
  • 3/4 (75%) for 17.3pts (+432.2%) on horses trained by today's trainer, R Michael Smith
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.43pts (+314.4%) over this 1m2f course and distance

AND... on R Michael Smith handicappers at 9/1 and shorter = 3/3 for 18.3pts.

That last stat isn't too surprising, if you consider that the Smith/McDonald partnership is 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 38.6pts (+275.6% ROI) in all handicaps here at Ayr, which is a nice developing angle to follow and includes...

  • males @ 4/11 936.4%) for 24.5pts (222.7%)
  • those beaten by 2-10 lengths LTO : 4/9 (44.4%) for 34.8pts (+386.3%)
  • over this 1m2f C&D : 3/6 (50%) for 11.54pts (+192.4%)
  • with previous distance winners : 4/9 (44.4%) for 30.24pts (+336%)
  • with previous course winners : 4/8 (50%) for 18.4pts (+230%)
  • and with previous course and distance winners : 3/6 (50%) for 15.29pts (+254.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Haymarket3/1 BOG which was offered by Betvictor, Betfair, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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