Saturday's Runner was...
1.20 Sandown : Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 Tracked leaders, disputing 2nd after 2nd, led before 2 out, soon quickened clear, eased towards finish, but still clear by 11 lengths.
Our new week starts with Monday's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG
A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £6,238 to the winner...
This "lad" might be eleven years old now and certainly not a Festival horse, but there's plenty of life left in the old boy yet, as typified by him winning three of his seven races over the past 12 months and he comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back soft ground wins at this Class 3 over trips of 3m and beyond, including a course and distance win two starts ago when partnered by today's jockey Harry Reed.
This recent form took his career tally to a point that includes of relevance today...
- 5 wins and 2 places from 12 runs after a break of just 16-30 days
- 3 wins and a place from 7 soft ground outings
- 2 wins and 2 places from 5 here at Plumpton
- 3 wins from 4 wearing cheekpieces
- 2 wins from 3 over course and distance
- 1 from 1 under jockey Harry Reed.
His trainer Chris Gordon tends to come to the fore towards the back end of the season and since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers are 47/266 (17.7% SR) for 133.4pts (+50.1% ROI) in the February to April period, including...
- over hurdles : 24/154 (15.6%) for 116.7pts (+75.8%)
- in March : 22/94 (23.4%) for 85.95pts (+91.4%)
- on Soft ground : 14/77 (18.2%) for 62.8pts (+81.6%)
- at Plumpton : 16/63 (25.4%) for 102.7pts (+163%)
- at Class 3 : 10/56 (17.9%) for 30.3pts (+54.2%)
- LTO winners are 12/44 (27.3%) for 4.86pts (+11.1%)
- at 3m1.5f-3m2f : 6/22 (27.3%) for 20.5pts (+93.2%)
- and with Harry Reed in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.62pts (+66.3%)
And also since the start of 2013, in UK NH handicaps, horses who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less last time out are 228 from 1022 (22.3% SR) for 194.3pts (+19% ROI) when returning to the scene of a course and distance success. These 1022 runners include...
- LTO winners : 182/851 (21.4%) for 91.1pts (+10.7%)
- after 11-30 days rest : 122/547 (22.3%) for 159.5pts (+29.2%)
- at Class 3 : 73/259 (28.2%) for 214pts (+82.6%)
- in March : 26/108 (24.1%) for 59.4pts (+55%)
- and here at Plumpton : 6/22 (27.3%) for 6.4pts (+28.9%)
...whilst LTO winners racing at Class 3 some 11 to 30 days since their last run are 30/116 (25.9% SR) for 98.3pts (+84.7% ROI) profit, with 6 winners from 13 (46.2%) in March generating 30.5pts profit at an ROI of 234.2%...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 6.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!