Stat of the Day, 12th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2015

The recent softening of conditions has led to a spate of hold-up horses not being able to reel the leaders back in, but the opposite happened to us on Saturday, where it could be argued that our runner hit the front too soon.

Gracious John was headed just inside the final furlong and although he stuck to the task and kept on, he didn't have the pace to go with the two that passed him and we had to settle for a third placed finish at 11/4.

More Flat action on Monday, via the...

5.00 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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A Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m2f, where Marcus Tregoning's Thames Knight could offer some real value at 7/1 BOG, as he comes here in great form having won back to back handicaps over this trip at Bath in August (1 on good to soft), before finishing 3rd at Goodwood over 1m3f last time out. He was on the wrong side of the track that day as the two ahead of him raced on the opposite (and evidently quicker!) side of the track.

Marcus Tregoning has been profitable to back blindly on the Flat for the last eight seasons with his 142 winners from 1023 runners providing a 13.9% strike rate and level stakes profits of 164.4pts at an ROI of 16.1% : excellent figures for such a large data-set, with his handicappers winning 86 of 496 (17.3% SR) for 123.8pts (25% ROI).

Of those 496 handicappers...

  • those running over trips of 1m to 1m3f are 43/266 (16.2% SR) for 118.4pts (+25% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 46/242 (17.6% SR) for 75.4pts (+28.8% ROI)
  • in 3yo only races, they are 29/180 (16.1% SR) for 69.8pts (+38.8% ROI)
  • geldings are 22/153 (14.4% SR) for 58pts (+37.9% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 27/125 (21.6% SR) for 51.3pts (+41% ROI)

Now Marcus has four runners out today, but with three of them off to Salisbury, Thames Knight is the yard's sole representative here today and on the occasions when Marcus has only had one runner at a track since the start of 2010, he has bagged 96 winners from 650 (14.8% SR) runners for profits of 164pts (+25.3% ROI) and in Flat handicaps, those numbers improve to 42 winners from 240 (17.5% SR) for 61.6pts (+25.7% ROI).

Of those 240 handicappers...

  • runners over 1m to 1m3f are 22/129 (17.1% SR) for 62.1pts (+48.2% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 16/60 (26.7% SR) for 50.6pts (+84.4% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners at 1m to 1m3f are 7/33 (21.2% SR) for 18.1pts (+54.9% ROI)

The 7/1 BOG about Thames Knight is available at Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor and Boylesports and you can take your pick of the bookies, when you... here for the betting on the 5.00 Windsor

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Here is today's racecard.

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3 replies
  1. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Chris….

    I have a question – which would be interesting to research – do you think Stat of the Day moves the market? I ask this as it seems the bookies have cottoned onto the success of SotD with selections usually getting backed into shorter prices than the ones advised on a frequent basis. Taking today’s selection its been backed down from around 7s and 6s into as low as 3s with Betfred, Totesport and William Hill with a best price of no more than 4s. This has all happened within the last couple of hours well before the off and its only 9.55am in the morning!



    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Martin,

      Great question and not one I can probably answer!
      I’m not personally convinced we move the market that much to be honest, although my vanity would like it to be the case.

      Part of my self-imposed remit is to find value, as I’m not really interested in the winner at any price mentality displayed by many a racing “tipster “ (awful word). To me the challenge is all in the numbers (of course!) and I don’t mind backing 5/1 losers that run at 5/2, because they’ll make money in the long run.

      I do try to identify horses that look a little longer than they should be, so maybe I’m getting that bit right, rather than actually driving the market, like somebody like Pricewise (for example) might.

      I think that a lot of the shortening we see is just the bookies correcting the price to where it should be. That cut in price will then attract those who follow the markets and back those coming down in price creating a self-propelling downward spiral of its own, ideal for the Back to Lay boys, of course!

      I also have no idea how many people are backing SotD regularly and how much they’re staking, but judging by the amount of feedback I get from readers, I don’t think many of you back them every day.


      • dolphin68 says:

        Hi Chris,

        Thanks for taking the time to answer….and in such a candid way. I can’t help but agreeing with you that the trick is to find selections that are overpriced instead of concentrating on the most obvious candidate to win the race in question. As you’ve alluded to over time backing horses that are overpriced and shorten – even though a fair share of these don’t go onto win – they’ll make you money in the long run.

        I have a good friend who likes to bet on the horses who is fixated on the idea of finding winners irrespective of their odds and whether the wager constitutes any type of value. I remember once trying to explain the idea of finding value – horses that the bookmakers overprice and therefore underestimate their chances of winning – to him. I failed miserably and I can still remember one of the things he said when discussing this…..’Martin, the price doesn’t matter…..’. Arrrghhh!

        I love digging through the stats and Horseracebase is just a fantastic tool for doing this….you can use various profiling tools (for trainers and jockeys) and the system builder to winkle out some great bets.



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