Saturday's Result :
6.55 Chepstow: Free To Love @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Made most, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace)
A second second in a row on Saturday, as Free To Love ran well but just couldn't cope with Ginzan's relentless finish. A miss is as good as a mile, as they say, so we'll plough on to Monday, and the...
Ex Lover at 6/1 BOG
I very nearly nominated a Roger Varian-trained maiden runner at Windsor for last Monday's Stat of the Day, but didn't. It won. So this feels a bit like groundhog day and/or closing the stable door after the horse has bolted...
But still Varian's record at the 'other' royal racecourse is more than enough to justify a second bite at the cherry.
In the last five years, he's saddled 92 Windsor runners, 26 of which have won and another 21 made the frame. That's a 28% strike rate for +19.67
When Andrea Atzeni takes the ride, the numbers improve to 10 wins from 25 runs (40%) and a profit of +29.59.
That combination is in rip-roaring form currently, too, with 14 wins from 42 runners in the last 30 days - 33% - and a profit at SP of +20.63 points.
Ex Lover is a son of Monsun who cost 200,000 guineas as a yearling. Out of a Sadler's Wells mare, he's all about stamina and will have likely needed time to develop. This 1m2f trip will probably be a starting point with longer distances the job he was bred for.
Varian's record with 3yo first time starters is good: 21 wins from 136 runs, and a profit of +37.78 to level stakes.
This is a big field maiden, and there are a few likely sorts on both pedigree and form; but I'm happy to risk a 1pt win bet on Ex Lover at 6/1 BOG with any of the handful of bookies quoting those odds at 9.30pm. For a fuller market overview, simply...
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