Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.15 Aintree: Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/4 Held up towards rear, closed on inside from 5th, no impression 2 out, weakened before last.

Next up is Monday's...

4.00 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1


Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner.

Trainer Harry Whittingham has 3 winners from his last 8 runners, from which his hurdlers are 2 from 4, but that's not too surprising considering that since 1st October 2014, his hurdlers are 19/75 (25.3% SR) for 149.2pts (+199% ROI) in the final three months of the year. Of those 75 early season hurdlers...

  • males are 16/67 (23.9%) for 70.7pts (+105.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 146.1pts (+270.5%)
  • ran in last 30 days : 6/32 (18.75%) for 30.25pts (+94.5%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 13/31 (41.9%) for 17.35pts (+56%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 11/30 (36.7%) for 135pts (+450%)
  • in handicaps : 5/25 (20%) for 15.36pts (+61.4%)
  • and here at Kempton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 12.17pts (+173.8%)

...and his only hurdler today is Salto Chisco, a 9yr old gelding who has three wins from his last six outings and has also achieved the following...

  • 3 wins & 2 places from 7 within 30 days of his last run
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 6 going right handed
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 5 at 2 miles
  • 1 from 1 here at Kempton (over course and distance)

That course and distance win also makes him of further interest, as since 2009 in Class 3 to 5 handicap hurdles, former C&D winners who were priced at 7/4 to 12/1 after a win LTO = 195/952 (20.5% SR) for 169.2pts (+17.8% ROI), including...

  • those who last ran 6 to 60 days earlier : 173/843 (20.5%) for 150.1pts (+17.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 21/91 (23.1%) for 29.5pts (+32.4%)
  • and here at Kempton: 2/10 (20%) for 6.91pts (+69.1%) us... a 1pt win bet on Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1