Saturday's Result :
4.05 Ayr : One For Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Held up towards rear and in touch, headway 8 out, ridden and blundered 3 out, weakened before next)
Monday's runner goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Kapricorne @ 11/4 BOG
Well, initially we have a horse who is 2/9 of soft ground and 2/6 under today's jockey and since the start of 2010, trainer Sophie Leech's NH handicappers priced at 2/1 to 18/1 (a pretty broad spectrum!) are 17 from 90 (18.9% SR) when ridden by a 3lb claimer. These runs have produced level stakes profits of 126.3pts at an impressive ROI of 140.3% and we can analyse those runners as follows...
- males are 16/81 (19.75% SR) for 120pts (+148.2% ROI)
- those ridden by Killian Moore are 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 66.9pts (+128.6% ROI)
- chasers are 8/52 (15.4% SR) for 56.7pts (+109.1% ROI)
- on soft/heavy ground : 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 57.3pts (+184.8% ROI)
- those travelling 2m6f or further : 6/31 (19.4% SR) for 67.2pts (+216.6% ROI)
And since the start of 2011, Sophie's NH handicappers dropping down a class to run at odd at odds of 14/1 and shorter are 17/101 (16.8% SR) for 52.8pts (+52.3% ROI) and if we give those 101 runners the SotD treatment, we have....
- males winning 16 of 92 (17.4% SR) for 49.5pts (+53.8% SR)
- those aged 7 or older are 16/80 (20% SR) for 63.8pts (+79.8% ROI)
- those who ran in the last 45 days are 12/74 (16.2% SR) for 40.1pts (+54.2% ROI)
- Class 5 runners are 10/57 (17.5% SR) for 33.7pts (+59.1% ROI)
- those finishing 4th to 7th last time out are 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 77.9pts (+141.7% ROI)
- chasers are 7/45 (15.6% SR) for 35.1pts (+78% ROI)
- on soft/heavy ground : 6/35 (17.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+43.1% ROI)
- ridden by Killian Moore : 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 36.4pts (+331% ROI)
And a non-trainer specific stat that might (or might not!) interest you is that since the start of 2012 in Class 4/5 handicap chases, horses priced at 12/1 and shorter ridden by a 3lb claimer who are in the top 2 of the weights before and after all claims are considered have won 94 of 421 (22.3% SR) races for profits of 100.7pts (+23.9% ROI), with those runners broken down as follows...
- males are 90/387 (23.3% SR) for 112.8pts (+29.2% ROI)
- 5 to 10 yr olds are 91/386 (23.6% SR) for 115.1pts (+29.8% ROI)
- those who were PU/RO/Top 5 LTO are 86/339 (25.4% SR) for 125.7pts (+37.1% ROI)
- and those last seen 6 to 90 days ago are 84/341 (24.6% SR) for 124.2pts (+36.4% ROI)
And a micro from the above? 6-10 yr old males running 6-75 days since they were PU/RO/Top 5 LTO are 67/211 (31.75% SR) for 145.1pts (+68.8% ROI) profit.
So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Kapricorne at 11/4 BOG with any one of the half dozen or more firms with that price. You could take 3/1 from Betway or Ladbrokes, but they're non-BOG until morning and I'm happy to sacrifice the quarter point incase of adrift. To see what your favourite firm is offering, simply...
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