Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2016

Saturday's Result :

4.05 Ayr : One For Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Held up towards rear and in touch, headway 8 out, ridden and blundered 3 out, weakened before next)

Monday's runner goes in the...

4.45 Plumpton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Kapricorne @ 11/4 BOG

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Well, initially we have a horse who is 2/9 of soft ground and 2/6 under today's jockey and since the start of 2010, trainer Sophie Leech's NH handicappers priced at 2/1 to 18/1 (a pretty broad spectrum!) are 17 from 90 (18.9% SR) when ridden by a 3lb claimer. These runs have produced level stakes profits of 126.3pts at an impressive ROI of 140.3% and we can analyse those runners as follows...

  • males are 16/81 (19.75% SR) for 120pts (+148.2% ROI)
  • those ridden by Killian Moore are 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 66.9pts (+128.6% ROI)
  • chasers are 8/52 (15.4% SR) for 56.7pts (+109.1% ROI)
  • on soft/heavy ground : 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 57.3pts (+184.8% ROI)
  • those travelling 2m6f or further : 6/31 (19.4% SR) for 67.2pts (+216.6% ROI)

And since the start of 2011, Sophie's NH handicappers dropping down a class to run at odd at odds of 14/1 and shorter are 17/101 (16.8% SR) for 52.8pts (+52.3% ROI) and if we give those 101 runners the SotD treatment, we have....

  • males winning 16 of 92 (17.4% SR) for 49.5pts (+53.8% SR)
  • those aged 7 or older are 16/80 (20% SR) for 63.8pts (+79.8% ROI)
  • those who ran in the last 45 days are 12/74 (16.2% SR) for 40.1pts (+54.2% ROI)
  • Class 5 runners are 10/57 (17.5% SR) for 33.7pts (+59.1% ROI)
  • those finishing 4th to 7th last time out are 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 77.9pts (+141.7% ROI)
  • chasers are 7/45 (15.6% SR) for 35.1pts (+78% ROI)
  • on soft/heavy ground : 6/35 (17.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+43.1% ROI)
  • ridden by Killian Moore : 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 36.4pts (+331% ROI)

And a non-trainer specific stat that might (or might not!) interest you is that since the start of 2012 in Class 4/5 handicap chases, horses priced at 12/1 and shorter ridden by a 3lb claimer who are in the top 2 of the weights before and after all claims are considered have won 94 of 421 (22.3% SR) races for profits of 100.7pts (+23.9% ROI), with those runners broken down as follows...

  • males are 90/387 (23.3% SR) for 112.8pts (+29.2% ROI)
  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 91/386 (23.6% SR) for 115.1pts (+29.8% ROI)
  • those who were PU/RO/Top 5 LTO are 86/339 (25.4% SR) for 125.7pts (+37.1% ROI)
  • and those last seen 6 to 90 days ago are 84/341 (24.6% SR) for 124.2pts (+36.4% ROI)

And a micro from the above? 6-10 yr old males running 6-75 days since they were PU/RO/Top 5 LTO are 67/211 (31.75% SR) for 145.1pts (+68.8% ROI) profit.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Kapricorne at 11/4 BOG with any one of the half dozen or more firms with that price. You could take 3/1 from Betway or Ladbrokes, but they're non-BOG until morning and I'm happy to sacrifice the quarter point incase of adrift. To see what your favourite firm is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 4.45 Plumpton

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Here is today's racecard...

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7 replies
  1. John Carney says:

    Well, like most, for the past four, or five, months, we didn’t have the ache of wondering if we might be successful, once again, today. After a circuit, the game was up and the money was gone, we were able to watch the rest of the race without any anxiety.
    I know this is stupid, but, for a while, I’ve wondered if there was a “Jona” among us and if so would he be cocking this project up, I don’t know, but I do know that if that may be the case, it won’t be me, in future, because I’m out, from now. I can’t see how anyone could carry on with losses like this, but that isn’t my concern, all that I know is that I can’t handle it any longer and I won’t be trying too. So many weeks, so many months, of the most awful results, (good God if one had been laying these pigs!) even the week before last, when we lost a point, I tried to convince myself that this was a victory, of sorts, and took comfort from Chris’s update saying that we would soon turn the corner, that obviously, wasn’t the case (last week, ffs) and this is just too much, for too long, for anybody, but, in particular, me, from where I’m sitting!
    Finally, this is no reflection on Chris, or, for that matter, Matt, it’s just a fact that the car is broke, we either sit there or walk away. I’m often, when I have the strength to look, surprised that no one has made any comments, perhaps they’re afraid of being accused of being belligerent or they’re loaded anyway, and, don’t give a shit, obviously, I’m not in that boat, on either count, though these words are not meant to be, personally, insulting to anyone, though I realise they won’t please everyone either.
    To those who are still “in” and to Chris, I wish you all the best and when things turn I’ll read about it on Twitter, no doubt, even if my foremost thoughts will be, how long will it take to level up since November.
    Good luck, all.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      I’m as bewildered and frustrated as the next man, believe me.

      Even more so, when you consider that my Stat Picks come from the same MO, but are 30pts up this year so far.

    • James Cross says:

      Each to his own John and believe me I know how frustrating a long losing run is.

      However it is part of the game and it happens to the best of tipsters, punters and systems. That’s why you need to set aside a specific betting bank. Chris has suggested 50 points, I am more conservative and use a bank of 80 points for SOTD.

      I do believe this will turn around for us but I think you are 100% right to get out now if this losing spell is too much for you.

      However I’m not sure you’ll ever find a tipster or system that doesn’t have a downswing of around 40 points eventually.

  2. Doshtosh says:

    Chris, I subscribe to Stat Picks, and out of respect for you, and your work, I haven’t cancelled the payments (which, in all fairness, are very reasonable) however, since Christmas, I haven’t even looked at that service, not the recommendations or the results. I know this has worked against me, but as S.O.T.D. is the main service and money was, and is, leaking out like a bucket with a hole in the bottom of it, I decided something had to give three months ago, so at Christmas, with no sign of improvement, I swerved Stat Picks, feeling that it was the lesser service and I couldn’t afford to stay with it. Now it’s big brother has sent me packing, too. Such is life. I’ve been betting for a long time and, like everyone, have had to endure losing runs, but four months, plus, no, I’ve never seen, or heard of a run like this before. OK call me innocent or naive but I’m not aware of a losing run like this nor have I ever known anyone, until now, who has had a run like it.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      I fully empathise with all SotD followers and I’m never one to make excuses, results simply have not been good enough.

      However, with the greatest of respect, you have contributed partially to your current situation. You are a gold subscriber of Geegeez, which entails far more than SotD does. Geegeez Gold is not primarily a tipping service, SotD is just something we offer as part of a bigger package. I wanted to run a tipping service and so I set up Stat Picks to run separately from Geegeez.

      You subscribed (and still do) to Stat Picks, but gave up on it at Christmas despite it making 8.5pts in the first three weeks of December. Since Christmas, that service is a further 34.9pts to the good, so had you continued with both services, you’d be in a stronger position now.

      So, whilst I’m fully sympathetic to your feelings on this, I feel it a little unfair to use SotD’s results as a stick to beat me with. Had you not been receiving other profitable selections from me, however, then I’d be more in tune with your thoughts.

      Please take this in the manner it is intended, I’m not wanting a public argument about it. SotD had been brilliant for a ling time and more recently very poor. I only hope the levelling out precedure comes to an end soon and I’m grateful that my boss is far more patient/understanding than the average Premier League Chairman seems to be! 😀

      All the best,

  3. Doshtosh says:

    Chris, I appreciate all that you have said (and done) and if I were to drop out of one it should have been S.O.T.D. but I had such faith in that, that I chose to stay with it and dropped out of the other one, which, no doubt, is showing wonderful gains but no matter, the only reason I signed on to that was out of respect for you and your work, and the fabulous deal us “lifers” had got from the original. I never bet it like I bet S.O.T.D. I’m not that keen on multiple selections, two or three are just about bearable, any more sinks my stomach, but I’d still cover them when I used the service even if I wasn’t keen, but that’s, just, me. The last thing I want (well the last thing is more losers!) is a public, or private argument, but the disappointment is as great as it can be these days. To be honest, if someone told me, this time last year, that this would be the scenario for the end of last year and the first quarter of this one I’d have made a discreet call to a local psychiatrist and paid (out of the S.O.T.D. profits!) for their treatment. May be I believed in things too much, as this was the only tipping service I have ever dealt with, though heard plenty about other ones which, for years, had kept me well away from them.
    Anyway, there are worse things going on, on our planet, so let’s not worry too much, and, you do know that anything said was not, and never will be, a personal thing, to you, or Matt. You guys have a difficult job and do it with aplomb as well as honesty, always. Thanks for that.
    Good luck,

    • Chris Worrall says:

      I fully get you, mate. i really do.
      And in your defence, I’ve got the benefit of hindsight re: Stat Picks and and also the benfit of a 300+ pts bank accrued from SotD.
      I’m fully aware that recent followers aren’t in that fortunate position and I’ll be doing my utmost to remedy an unacceptable situation.


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