Saturday's Runner was...
6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)
We start a new week with Monday's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG
A 12-runner, Class 5, 1m4f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...
Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.
He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...
- 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
- 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
- 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
- 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
- 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
- 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
- 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
- 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
- and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance
His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.
These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...
- 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
- 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
- 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
- and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)
...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!