Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Zapper Cass @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden and edged right last bend, stayed on same pace inside final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ravished @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, Open Hunters Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £2184 to the winner...

Why?...

This 11 yr old gelding was a good 11 lengths winner of a similar Class 6, 3m, Hunter Chase last time out, 17 days ago at Wetherby, having triumphed by 30 lengths in a 3m Point to Point some 13 days prior to that, so he should be fine with the trip again today.

Today's rider Joe Wright was in the saddle for both wins, so there should be some familiarity there to work with for a horse who has an overall record of 5 wins from 31 under Rules including 4/22 over fences (1/1 in hunter chases from LTO) and of his 5/31 Rules record he is...

  • 4/12 at trips of 3m and beyond (3/10 over fences)
  • 4/6 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (4/5 over fences)
  • and 1/1 for trainer GC Brewer, 1/1 at Class 6 and 1/1 under Joe Wright : all three achieved LTO!

He's by Oscar, whose offspring are 8/33 (24.2% SR) for 31pts (+93.8% ROI) in hunter chases at 2m7.5f and beyond since the start of 2017, from which..

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 42.4pts (+325.9%) on Good ground
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 24.9pts (+207.3%) from 11yr olds
  • whilst 11 yr olds on Good ground are 4/7 (57.1%) for 29.9pts (+426.9%)

Whereas trainer GC Brewer's only runners under Rules are those running in this type of race and since the start of 2017, his hunter chasers are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 19.75pts (+246.9% ROI), including...

  • 11 yr olds at 3/4 (75%) for 20.15pts (+503.7%)
  • sub-5/1 shots are 3/3 (100%) for 7.29pts (+243%)
  • whilst sub-5/1 11 yr olds are 2 from 2 (100%) for 4.68pts (+234%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ravished @ 11/4 BOG as offered by Betfair, Hills, Paddy Power & Sky at 8.30pm on Sunday (3.30pm here),. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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