Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.50 Salisbury : El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, soon weakened

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £5208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a decent fifth of ten in a far better contest than this last time out. He was only two lengths off the pace that day at Sandown 10 days ago and now drops two classes and run off a mark eased by two pounds today.

He currently has a good record in Flat handicaps, having fur wins and three places from twelve efforts and with today's contest in mind, those runs include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
  • 4 wins from 6 on tracks deemed as "flat"
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 after a break of 8 to 28 days
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 at Class 4
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 in fields of 8 runners or less
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at this 1m2f trip
  • 2 wins from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 2 wins from 2 here at Windsor
  • 2 wins from 2 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • and 2 wins from 2 over course and distance

No disrespect intended to Nicola Currie, who not only rode the horse very well last time out, but is also certainly a fine, talented jockey overall, but the booking of Oisin Murphy today is a positive move to me, as he has already ridden 11 winners from 40 (27.5% SR) in handicaps on this track this season with a 1pt level stake bet on each of the 40 generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% and those 40 rides include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 26.04pts (+78.9%) at classes 3 to 5
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 31.33pts (+142.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 16.07pts (+59.5%) on male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 26.29pts (+146.1%) over trips of 10 to 11.5 furlongs
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 3.28pts (+21.9%) at Class 4
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.08pts (+89.8%) over this 1m2f course and distance...

...whilst on male runners in fields of 7-11 at Classes 3 to 5 over trips of 10 to 11,5 furlongs, Oisin is 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+243.4% ROI), including 4 from 7 over this 1m2f C&D, 3 from 6 at Class 4 and 3 from 5 (60%) for 7.19pts (+143.8%) over course and distance at Class 4.

Oisin doesn't get to ride many of trainer Mick Channon's horses and I'd guess that's down to other contractual obligations on both sides,because it's certainly not down to a lack of success, as since 2015, the duo are 7 from 15 (46.7% SR) for 44.8pts (+298.9% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 12/1 and this includes 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 35.4pts (+392.8%) in handicaps...

...which all points towards... a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Skybet at 6.40pm on Sunday, although better on a non-BOG basis was available. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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