Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

4.05 Chepstow : Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader, tracked new leader before 3rd, led next, joined 4 out, in command and good jump last, stayed on strongly to win by 10 lengths)

And we kick off a new week via Monday's...

2.40 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  2m6.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £4289 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is certainly knocking on the door, having finished as a runner-up on all three starts so far. He can consider himself unlucky not to have won last time out when badly hampered late on by a faller (Luckime, who incidentally won at Taunton last week) contributing to him getting caught and headed close to home causing him to be be beaten by just half a length.

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That was his handicap debut and he'd been stepped up in both class and trip, so I'd expect another good show from him today back down at Class 4 and over a trip some 2.5 furlongs shorter, especially as he was some 24 lengths clear of the third placed horse, whilst the narrow winner was more experienced in handicap racing, landing a third win from six attempts.

Stat-wise, since the start of 2013, in UK NH handicaps, horses coming into a contest off the back of three consecutive runner-up finishes finally managed to go one better on 55 of 357 (15.4% SR) occasions, returning profits of 62pts at an ROI of 17.4% and from these 357 "triple bridesmaids"...

  • males are 51/328 (15.6%) for 73.1pts (+22.3%)
  • 6 to 9 yr olds are 43/266 (16.2%) for 97.8pts (+36.8%)
  • those beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO are 33/180 (18.3%) for 106.9pts (+59.4%)
  • in the opening third (Jan-Apr) of the year : 30/175 (17.1%) for 105.4pts (+60.2%)
  • and those ridden by 7lb claimers are 8/38 (21.1%) for 39.9pts (+104.9%)

OR...based around the above, you could save this little micro-system...6 to 9 yr old males in January to May, beaten by 0.25 to 10 lengths (the extra month and bigger margin of defeat gives a better/more reliable sample size) are 23/106 (21.7% SR) for 159.3pts (+150.3% ROI), with 7lb claimers riding 4 winners from 12 (33.3%) for 33.7pts (+280.8%)

I mention the 7lb claimer jockeys, because trainer Sandy Thomson is very adept at booking such jockeys, as his record with them is 22/120 (18.3% SR) for 251.1pts (+209.2% ROI) since the start of 2015...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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