Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

4.05 Chepstow : Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader, tracked new leader before 3rd, led next, joined 4 out, in command and good jump last, stayed on strongly to win by 10 lengths)

And we kick off a new week via Monday's...

2.40 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  2m6.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £4289 to the winner...


This 7 yr old gelding is certainly knocking on the door, having finished as a runner-up on all three starts so far. He can consider himself unlucky not to have won last time out when badly hampered late on by a faller (Luckime, who incidentally won at Taunton last week) contributing to him getting caught and headed close to home causing him to be be beaten by just half a length.

That was his handicap debut and he'd been stepped up in both class and trip, so I'd expect another good show from him today back down at Class 4 and over a trip some 2.5 furlongs shorter, especially as he was some 24 lengths clear of the third placed horse, whilst the narrow winner was more experienced in handicap racing, landing a third win from six attempts.

Stat-wise, since the start of 2013, in UK NH handicaps, horses coming into a contest off the back of three consecutive runner-up finishes finally managed to go one better on 55 of 357 (15.4% SR) occasions, returning profits of 62pts at an ROI of 17.4% and from these 357 "triple bridesmaids"...

  • males are 51/328 (15.6%) for 73.1pts (+22.3%)
  • 6 to 9 yr olds are 43/266 (16.2%) for 97.8pts (+36.8%)
  • those beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO are 33/180 (18.3%) for 106.9pts (+59.4%)
  • in the opening third (Jan-Apr) of the year : 30/175 (17.1%) for 105.4pts (+60.2%)
  • and those ridden by 7lb claimers are 8/38 (21.1%) for 39.9pts (+104.9%)

OR...based around the above, you could save this little micro-system...6 to 9 yr old males in January to May, beaten by 0.25 to 10 lengths (the extra month and bigger margin of defeat gives a better/more reliable sample size) are 23/106 (21.7% SR) for 159.3pts (+150.3% ROI), with 7lb claimers riding 4 winners from 12 (33.3%) for 33.7pts (+280.8%)

I mention the 7lb claimer jockeys, because trainer Sandy Thomson is very adept at booking such jockeys, as his record with them is 22/120 (18.3% SR) for 251.1pts (+209.2% ROI) since the start of 2015...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 2.40 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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