Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.50 York : Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 : Prominent, led over 2f out, held on towards finish to win by a neck...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Killay @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' handicap over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 4 yr old filly with just four runs under her belt to date, but placed in all of them (2213) and all under today's jockey Charlie Bishop, with whom she seems to have struck up some understanding.

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Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's runners are going well of late, winning 5 of 25 (20% SR) over the last fortnight, but this late season form is unsurprising, when you find that...

..EJH / Flat handicaps / 6 to 10.5 furlongs / August-October / 3-5 yr olds / 2013-17 = 35/186 (18.8% SR) for 121.8pts (+65.5% ROI), with the following of particular relevance here...

  •  in 3yo+ handicaps : 27/145 (18.6%) for 109.3pts (+75.4%)
  • 11 to 45 days after their last run : 30/139 (21.6%) for 135.5pts (+97.5%)
  • 3 yr olds are 21/108 (19.4%) for 72.1pts (+66.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 31pts (+56.4%)
  • and here at Windsor : 4/17 (23.5%) for 18pts (+105.8%)

Plus, in that same 2013-17 time frame, Eve's 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ Flat handicaps are 20/103 (19.4% SR) for 90.6pts (+87.9% ROI), from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 13/59 (22%) for 88.6pts (+150.2%)
  • females are 9/46 (19.6%) for 59.3pts (+128.9%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 925%) for 17.34pts (+86.7%)
  • and here at Windsor, it's 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 19.7pts at an ROI of some 246.6%

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Killay @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday with plenty of more-than-acceptable 7/2 BOG elsewhere To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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