Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.15 Newmarket : On Her Toes @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 Held up, headway on outside, chasing leaders 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on inside final furlong, went 3rd final strides, never going pace of leading duo, beaten by 3 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Donnachies Girl @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old filly comes here looking for a hat-trick after back to back wins at relatively (40 miles) nearby Hamilton last month, giving her a 2 from 2 record in her short handicap career.

Her latest win was in a Class 5 contest and she now drops down a grade to run here, off efectively the same mark as LTO, after jockey claims are taken into consideration, which should give her every chance of scoring again.

Numbers-wise, trainer Alistair Whillans + flat handicappers down 1 grade = 21/153 (13.7% SR) for 54.4pts (+35.6% ROI) since the start of the 2010 campaign, from which...

  • those with 1-3 previous wins at the grade they're dropping to : 16/96 (16.7%) for 71.4pts (+74.3%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago are 15/85 (17.6%) for 24.3pts (+28.6%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 10/1  : 18/83 (21.7%) for 63.3pts (+76.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 12/65 (18.5%) for 62.9pts (+96.7%)
  • females are 10/57 (17.5%) for 21.7pts (+38%)
  • here at Ayr : 9/45 920%) for 28.8pts (+63.9%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 9/42 (21.4%) for 61.8pts (+147.2%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Donnachies Girl @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Ayr...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *