Saturday's Result :
2.15 Newmarket : On Her Toes @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 Held up, headway on outside, chasing leaders 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on inside final furlong, went 3rd final strides, never going pace of leading duo, beaten by 3 lengths.
Monday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Donnachies Girl @ 7/2 BOG
This 4 yr old filly comes here looking for a hat-trick after back to back wins at relatively (40 miles) nearby Hamilton last month, giving her a 2 from 2 record in her short handicap career.
Her latest win was in a Class 5 contest and she now drops down a grade to run here, off efectively the same mark as LTO, after jockey claims are taken into consideration, which should give her every chance of scoring again.
Numbers-wise, trainer Alistair Whillans + flat handicappers down 1 grade = 21/153 (13.7% SR) for 54.4pts (+35.6% ROI) since the start of the 2010 campaign, from which...
- those with 1-3 previous wins at the grade they're dropping to : 16/96 (16.7%) for 71.4pts (+74.3%)
- those last seen 6-20 days ago are 15/85 (17.6%) for 24.3pts (+28.6%)
- at odds of 9/4 to 10/1 : 18/83 (21.7%) for 63.3pts (+76.3%)
- at Class 6 : 12/65 (18.5%) for 62.9pts (+96.7%)
- females are 10/57 (17.5%) for 21.7pts (+38%)
- here at Ayr : 9/45 920%) for 28.8pts (+63.9%)
- and 4 yr olds are 9/42 (21.4%) for 61.8pts (+147.2%)
...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Donnachies Girl @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!