Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2014

We backed Alfred Hutchinson at 5/1 on Saturday and beat the market by some considerable margin, as after attracting plenty of support during the morning, he was sent off as the 3/1 second favourite.

Unfortunately, beating the market with a value price was as good as it got for our bet, I'm afraid. The horse never really got going and although William Buick tried his level best to keep him in contention, he finished rather one paced back in 6th place. He was admittedly only 3 lengths adrift of the impressive winner Big Baz, but he never really looked like landing a blow and it was a disappointing ending to a fairly frustrating week.

The beauty of a daily service like SotD, though, is that I'm given an opportunity to quickly get back into action and it's more A/W stuff for us on Monday with a runner in the...

2.10 Wolverhampton:

Which is a Class 6 nursery (2yo hcp) over 9.5 furlongs on the Tapeta and my selection is the 5/1 BOG Mikandy.

Who is trained by Clive Cox...

Clive has a good record on the A/W in recent years with 71 winners from 465 runners (15.3% SR) since the start of 2009 and the resultant 97.2pts level stakes are the equivalent of 20.9% of stakes invested. Trainers who are profitable to back blindly are always good to look out for, as you know the next winner won't be far away and that's certainly the case here.

From that unfiltered 71/465 record above, we see that Clive's handicappers are 42/293 (14.3% SR) for 71.9pts (+24.5% ROI), figures that are improved if we only back those priced between 5/2 & 14/1, where we would have 36 winners from 213 (16.9% SR) and a huge 118pts profits at an impressive ROI of 55.4%.

Ryan Tate rides and takes 3lbs off today...

As a 3lb claimer, Ryan is quite clearly still learning his game, but he does ride his claim out really well. He has used his 3lb claim in 34 A/W handicap races to date and the 8 winners he has ridden gives him a 23.5% strike rate achieving level stakes profits of 49.4pts at an ROI of 145.2% with a record here at Wolverhampton reading 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 14.9pts (+135.7% ROI)

Ryan is no stranger to the Cox horses either...

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And has performed really well for Clive this year winning 27 of 119 (22.7% SR) races for today's trainer, including a win on Mikandy last time out, but more on that later! 😀 This 27/119 record has generated level stakes profits of 35.1pts at an ROI of 29.5% and from this starting point, we can derive the following stats...

In handicaps : 22/88 (25% SR) for 48pts (+54.5% ROI)
On the A/W : 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 12.5pts (+56.6% ROI)
In A/W hcps : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 18.1pts (+129.2% ROI), of which they have a 2/6 record here at Wolverhampton this year.

Mikandy last ran just 5 days ago...

When she broke her duck with a first win at Kempton on Wednesday. I'm not concerned about her turning back out so quickly, as Clive Cox has a decent return from horses running shortly after a good run. Since 2009, horses running 5 to 10 days after a top 4 finish went on to win on 15 of 57 (26.3% SR) occasions and these runners have produced level stakes profits of 42.7pts (+74.9% ROI) to date. Those, like Mikandy who were actually winners LTO won again in 8 of 17 races (47.1% SR) for profits of 24.8pts (+145.6% ROI).

That was also her first time in the frame after 7 unplaced efforts...

But horses turned back out onto the A/W within 25 days of a win that broke a sequence of 3 or more unplaced runs tend to go well again next time out. Mikandy's win wasn't totally unexpected last time, she had been improving, as seen by her form line of 0684444 and she was getting closer and closer to the frame. But the stat is as follows, horses priced between 5/2 & 7/1 running in A/W handicaps within 25 days of a win LTO which was preceded by at least three consecutive unplaced efforts then won again on 187 occasions from 947 (19.8% SR) races since 2008.

These winners have given rise to level stakes profits of 174.3pts (+18.4% ROI) with a record here at Wolverhampton of 67/316 (21.2% SR) for 75.9pts (+24% ROI). In the two years that Wolverhampton record has been improved to 20/66 (30.3% SR) for 56.6pts profit at an ROI of 76.6% suggesting we've a good chance of going in again today.

It has taken a while for the penny to drop with Mikandy, but after those four consecutive 4th place finishes, she finally got her act together at Kempton last time out. She won reasonably comfortably by a length and a half staying on well and looking like she had plenty in the tank, so the step back up to the extra half furlong shouldn't be an issue. Prior to that she was beaten here at Wolverhampton by less than 3 length over a furlong shorter than today and she was staying on at the death then too. The runner-up from that race has goe on to win since and this new trip should suit Mikandy better in my opinion.

This is a fairly ordinary race and with the majority of the filed lacking experience of this track, I'm pretty confident of seeing a return from today's selection. The call is, therefore, a 1pt win bet on Mikandy at 5/1 BOG with Bet365, but to see the state of the whole market, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Wolverhampton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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9 replies
  1. dolphin68 says:

    Hello Chris,

    I’ve just run a query on Horseracebase for C Cox record on the AW from 2009, which concurs with yours except for the 97.2pts level stakes profit?

    Bets 465/ 71 winners/ SR 15.27%/ SP_PL 8.41/ 184 places/ Place SR 39.75%

    Am I missing something…..but the profit figures are very different?

    Martin

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Martin,

      That P/L figure you have is industry SP and we never back SotD horses at ISP.
      If I don’t take a price on a horse, I’d use betfair SP rather than ISP, so my figures are to betfair SP, a much closer approximation to BOG prices.

      Hope that helps,
      Chris

  2. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Chris…

    Much clearer…..thank you Chris…..just have to find out where I can get hold of betfair SP figures.

    Good luck with today’s selection….I’m on…..and finally SotD write ups are really works of art on how to find an angle into races to find strong selections.

    Best

    Martin

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Martin,

      if you use the V4 system builder on HRB, it will give you the Betfair SPs and the ROi etc.

      Chris

  3. dolphin68 says:

    Thank you Chris…..think the next hour or so is going to be spent having a play with the V4 system builder on HRB…..and to think its been right under my nose all this time I’ve been using HRB-;)

    Many thanks once again

    Martin

  4. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Chris….

    Well done Chris…..never looked like being caught….great stuff.

    V4 Builder looks mind boggling good.

    Best

    Martin

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Cheers, Martin.
      The only issue with the ever expanding V4 is there’s the possibility of overload!

  5. Tipstar says:

    Hi Chris
    Well done mate the Stat Of Day was different class it was all over a furlong out

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