Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2016

Saturday's Result :

4.10 Ffos Las : Tommy Silver @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Tracked front pair, driven approaching 3 out, lost place next, ridden and weakened before last)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mount Moriah at 100/30 BOG

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Why?

A former winner at both trip and class and also under today's jockey, this 2yr old has the benefit of being trained by Ralph Beckett, who is one of those rare breeds of trainers who are profitable to follow blindly.

Since 2008, backing every one of Ralph's 3693 runners would have given you 612 winners (16.6% SR) and 654.8pts (+17.7% ROI) of "bet and forget " profits, although an average of around 400 bets per year might well be too much for many people, so we'll make some logical steps to reduce the outlay, as follows...

  • those racing over trips of 7 to 8.5f are 244/1476 (16.55) for 297.1pts (+20.1%)
  • Class 5 runners are 285/1450 (19.7%) for 295.7pts (+20.4%)
  • 2 yr olds are 181/1149 (15.75%) for 324.3pts (+28.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 128/452 (28.3%) for 195.2pts (+43.2%)
  • and here at Pontefract : 9/28 (32.1%) for 12.14pts (+43.4%)

AND... 2 yr olds who were runners-up LTO and now run at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 8.5f at odds of 7/2 or shorter are 14 from 30 (46.7% SR) for 7.54pts (+25.1% ROI)

If we then also take a quick look back at that 9/28 record here at Ponty, we can also discover that...

  • Class 5 = 5/17 (29.4%), 2nd LTO = 3/4 (75%), 2 yr olds = 2/3 (66.6%) and on soft ground = 1 from 2.

Mount Moriah is also Ralph's only runner at this meeting today and such solo runners are 304/1639 (18.6% SR) for 349.1pts (+21.3% ROI) since 2008 and those that were his only runner anywhere that day have won 147 of 699 (21%) for a more than useful return of 212.6pts (+30.4%) with Class 5 races providing 78 winners from 308 (25.3%) for 170.5pts (+55.4%).

So it's a 1pt win bet on Mount Moriah at 100/30 BOG, from Betfair Sports, who headed the market at 11.30pm on Sunday night, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Pontefract.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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