Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway and squeezed through over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, but beaten by 2.5L)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Klassique @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £6469 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was 5th on debut over a mile and looked like she wanted/needed further, so was stepped up to 9.5f. She was then beaten by three parts of a length as a runner-up and she still looked like she had plenty more to give. She then won on her third and most recent start 8 weeks ago when just getting up by a nose over 1m2f when partnered by today's jockey James Doyle for the first time.

James is back in place and they're going a further 2 furlongs today for her handicap debut and I wouldn't be massively surprised if this proves to be the right trip for her : trainer William Haggas is one of the better judges around.

He doesn't, however, send many runners here to Kempton's Polytrack, but since the start of 2013, his handicappers are 14 from 72 (19.4% SR) for 21.6pts (+30% ROI) at this venue, so it's not a lack of success keeping him/them away. Of those 72 that have been sent here, Class 4/5 runners are 10 from 48 (20.8%) for 14.7pts (+30.7%)

Again since the start of 2013, Mr Haggas is 64/207 (30.9% SR) for 74pts (+35.8% ROI) with LTO winners who had been rested for at least 25 days.

Also in this same 2013-18 timeframe, his Class 3-6 handicap debutants are 71 from 257 (27.6% SR) for 38.3pts (+14.9% ROI), from which...

  • LTO winners are 47/157 (29.9%) for 21.6pts (+13.8%)
  • those off the track for a month or longer are 39/113 (34.5%) for 71.7pts (+63.5%)
  • and LTO winners returning from an absence of a month or longer are 26/71 (36.6%) for 34.3pts (+48.3%)

So, we've considered the horse and her trainer, what of her jockey, James Doyle? Well, he has a good recent record here too, having won 19 of 70 (27.1% SR) handicaps on this track since the start of 2016 recording profits of 30.8pts at an ROI of 44.1%. These also include 14 winners from 37 (37.8%) for 39.7pts (+107.2%) at Class 4 and two wins from three (66.6%) for 5.26pts (+175.4%) on horses trained by William Haggas...

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Klassique @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.15pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
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