Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Wetherby : Vendor @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Tracked leaders, led before 2 out, headed last, no extra and lost 2nd place last 100 yards)

Monday's runner goes in the...

4.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Winged Dancer @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

The yard has been showing signs of improved form of late with two winners from eight in the last fortnight, of which they've had one winner from thier two here at Wolverhampton, which has been a pretty happy hunting ground for Sylvester Kirk over the years.

In fact, since the start of 2012, the Kirk runners are 24/206 (11.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 46.8pts (+22.7% ROI), of which...

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  • those running 6 to 25 days since their last outing are 18/133 (13.5% SR) for 92.6pts (+69.6% ROI)
  • males are 19/117 (16.2% SR) for 59.3pts (+50.7% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 57.3pts (+409% ROI)

Males who won LTO 6 to 25 days ago are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 43.4pts (+723.3% ROI)

As you've probably gathered, Winged Dancer was a winner last time, a 3.75 length success at Kempton a fortnight ago, which came after finishes of 0064, making him a "return to form" horse of interest today, based on the following criteria...

...since the start of 2009 in Wolverhampton handicaps at odds of 10/11 to 7/1, horses running 1 to 30 days after a win LTO that had been preceded by three or more consecutive unplaced efforts...

Such horses are 120/458 (26.2% SR) for 89.7pts (+19.6% ROI), from which...

  • those running 6 to 15 days since that last run/win are 64/242 (26.5% SR) for 55.1pts (+22.8% ROI)
  • class 5 races : 36/134 (26.9% SR) for 26.7pts (+19.9% ROI)
  • over 8.5f here : 27/87 (31% SR) for 26pts (+29.9% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 8.10pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Winged Dancer and that's at 5/2 BOG with either Bet365 or BetVictor. To see the prices from all the other firms...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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