Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.30 Newbury : Golden Stunner @ 3/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden and hung left over 1f out, stayed on well to win by a half length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

8.50 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shifting Star at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 11 yr old veteran was a winner over course and distance last time out, 3 weeks ago, when dictating affairs and staying on well to win by the best part of three lengths. This will be tougher with him raised 5lbs for that win, but in a race where there's a lack of fellow front runners, he could well steal an easy early lead and our pace stats show that front runners do exceptionally well here at Windsor.

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Overall, Shifting Star has won 10 of his 72 (13.9% SR) races on the Flat producing level stakes profits of 12.17pts at an ROI of 16.9% and these are decent figures over such a long career, but with today's race in mind, the following becomes of greater interest...

  • in handicaps : 9/70 (12.9%) for 12.17pts (+17.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 10/55 (18.2%) for 29.17pts (+53%)
  • at Class 4/5 : 7/44 (15.9%) for 25.1pts (+57%)
  • ridden by William Carson : 4/22 (18.2%) for 3.92pts (+17.8%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 6/19 (31.6%) for 25.53pts (+134.4%)
  • at Windsor : 3/16 (18.75%) for 6.5pts (+40.6%)
  • over 1m 0.5f : 3/15 (20%) for 7.5pts (+50%)
  • and when winning LTO : 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.03pts (+214.7%)

AND...in Class 4/5 Flat handicaps, 11 to 45 days after his last run : 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 38.1pts (+131.2% ROI).

He's also a three time course and distance winner, all ridden by William Carson and since the start of 2012, trainer John Bridger's LTO winners running at the scene of a previous course and distance win priced at 9/2 and shorter are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 13.5pts at an ROI of 150%.

...so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Shifting Star at 4/1 BOG which was widely available in most places at 7.50pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

 

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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