Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Lingfield : Scentasia @ 4/1 WON at 11/8 (Keen, tracked leader 2f, soon steadied back and close up, headway 2f out, soon led, pushed out and won readily by 1.75 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Soft (Heavy in places) ground worth £3,119 to the winner...

Why?...

This 11yr old, Lawney Hill-trained gelding was a winner last time out, when staying on well to score by four lengths over 3m2f on soft ground at Fontwell in another Class 5 contest 10 days ago. That was his first win under Rules, but with 3 wins (inc. both soft and heavy ground) and 9 places from 17 three mile PTP contests, this is certainly within him.

Trainer Lawney Hill is 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 26.66pts (+95.2% ROI) since 2013 with her NH handicappers sent back out within a fortnight of a top three finish and these include...

  • 9/20 (45%) for 22.65pts (+113.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/16 (50%) for 14.17pts (+88.6%) at odds shorter than 4/1
  • 6/12 (50%) for 13.15pts (+109.6%) since 2016
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 10.28pts (+64.3%) from LTO winners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.61pts (+90.1%) with 9-12 yr olds
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.29pts (+71.5%) at Class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 12.09pts (+134.3%) at 6-10 days since that run
  • 3/4 (75%) for 6.4pts (+160%) on Soft/Heavy
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 3.88pts (+194%) on Soft

Meanwhile since 2016, Mrs Hill's NH handicappers sent off at Evens to 8/1 on ground officially deemed Soft or "worse" are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 13.72pts (+76.2% ROI), all of which were male runners and include...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 14.6pts (+146%) on Soft
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 7.81pts (+130.2%) from LTO winners
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 7pts (+116.6%) at 6-15 dslr

And as this is Lawney's only runner of the day, you might (or might not!) be interested to know that since 2016, when her only runner of the day is an NH handicapper priced at 8/1 or shorter, she is 17 from 54 (31.5% SR) for 50.04pts (+92.7% ROI), from which...

  • 17/40 (42.5%) for 64.04pts (+160.1%) in the 1st and 3rd quadrimester of the year (ie September to April)
  • 8/20 (40%) for 33.19pts (+166%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 27.14pts (+142.9%) during the final quarter of the year (ie Oct-Dec)
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 26.21pts (+163.8%) at Class 5
  • 5/16 931.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.34pts (+214.9%) from LTO winners
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.43pts 9+149.2%) on Soft ground
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 18.42pts (+230.3%) from 11/12 yr olds...

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Betway respectively at 5.15pm on Sunday, whilst Hills were matching the lower offer, but don't/won't go BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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