Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.15 Lingfield : Barye @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 - Mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Hereford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Uncle Jimmy @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding last won 6 starts and over 2 years ago, but was a decent third (his second such finish in his last three outings) at Newbruy last time out, over this trip and also on soft ground.

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That was, however, a Class 2 hurdle and now for his second crack at the largewr obstacles, he drops two classes to run here, where conditons look favourable at the very least, because so far, he is...

  • 4/10 in fields of 7 to 12 runners
  • 3/10 under Richard Johnson
  • 3/8 on soft ground
  • 2/5 at Class 4
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 at 3m1f

As suggested above, he'll be ridden by Richard Johnson, who has a good record riding for Philip Hobbs and of particular interest to me here in the following angle...

...Hobbs / Johnson / Class 3&4 / Novice Chase / 2010-16 = 38/147 (25.9% SR) for 22.9pts (+15.6% ROI), including...

  • males : 36/142 (25.4%) for 23.1pts (+16.3%)
  • 11-45 dslr : 25/84 (29.8%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%)
  • 1-4 previous chase runs : 25/71 (35.2%) for 23.3pts (+32.8%)
  • 3m to 3m1.5f : 13/44 (29.5%) for 20.1pts (+45.7%)
  • on Soft : 6/29 (20.7%) for 5.73pts (+19.75%)
  • at Hereford : 1/1

And it's also worth adding the fact that Philip Hobbs' chasers on a losing run of 1 to 8 races and now with an Official rating lower than their last win are 32/154 (20.8% SR) for 58.7pts (+38.1% ROI) since 2012, of which...

  • at trips of 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f : 19/83 (22.9%) for 72.5pts (+87.4%)
  • at class 4 : 15/38 (39.5%) for 48.1pts (+126.7%)
  • on soft : 8/37 (21.6%) for 10.3pts (+27.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Uncle Jimmy at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 and/or BetVictor who led the way at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Hereford

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

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