Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG (= 3.4/1 after 15p R4) WON at 7/4 Made all, driven over 1f out, ridden and ran on well inside final furlong to win by a length and three quarters...

We start the new week with Monday's...

7.50 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lacan @ 3/1 BOG

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A Class 4, 1m A/W handicap on polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 141 in hos last three outings, all over this course and distance and won 23 days ago under today's jockey, just as he did three starts ago (a different jockey rode the defeat).

So far on the A/W, Lacan is...

  • 4/15 over a mile, 3/9 at Kempton and 3/8 over course and distance
  • 2/2 with today's jockey, both over course and distance and he's 1/1 in Class 4 races worth over £6,000.

Trainer Brett Johnson isn't the most famous, nor does he have lots of runners, but of his nine runners over the past month, 5 have made the frame with three going on to win and backing all his runners since the start of 2017 would give you 11 winners from 88 (12.5% SR) and 53.82pts profit at an ROI of 61.2%, including...

  • in handicaps : 9/68 (13.2%) for 60.8pts (+89.5%)
  • on the A/W : 8/57 (14%) for 43.3pts (+76%), all on polytrack
  • males : 10/51 (19.6%) for 84.9pts (+166.4%)
  • 21-75 days since last run : 8/47 (17%) for 55.34pts (+117.8%)
  • 1m to 1m2f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 89.91pts (+272.5%)
  • at Kempton : 5/32 (15.6%) for 27.6pts (+86.2%)
  • ridden by Callum Shepherd : 5/27 (18.5%) for 33.6pts (+124.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 3/19 (15.8%) for 5.9pts (+31%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/8 (25%) for 14.24pts (+178.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lacan @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Betway & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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3 replies
  1. seng84 says:

    Such good stats…hard to imagine how it can lose!

    I notice that the SOTD had great success last year…has the service improved do you think since you first set it up? Do you use more comprehensive parameters now? Thanks

    • Chris Worrall says:

      These are very good questions indeed.
      I don’t think the performance of the service has improved dramatically to be honest. There was a poor 6 month spell a few years back, but other than that the strike rate and ROI have been pretty constant.

      I’d say the quality and depth of data used to provide the selections has improved, though, as we add more and more functionality to the geegeez toolbox, I have more angles to consider.

      There hasn’t been (in my opinion, at least) any stand out year and if pushed I’m more proud of what we achieved as a team (it’s not just me!) in 2013 than what we made last year. After the first half of 2013, we were some 25pts down, but in the second half of the year we made 48pts at an ROI of 41% from a 38.5% strike rate.

      But I’m splitting hairs here, the service launched in November 2011 with a winner on day 1 and has been in profit ever since.

      Your query has, however, reminded me that I’ve not done a 2017 roundup, so that will get done today (Monday) at some point.

      Chris

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