Saturday's Result :
3.35 Bath : Realize @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Tracked leaders, not clear run from over 1f out, quickened between horses to lead inside final furlong, ran on, readily won by 2.5 lengths.
Monday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Indigo Princess @ 5/2 BOG
This 4 yr old filly has finished 212 in her last three outings, so clearly comes here in good nick. Beaten by 2.5 lengths last time out in unsuitable conditions (C4 over 7f on Gd to Soft), she now looks well placed to repeat her C&D success of two starts ago.
That win was back in Class 6 company over 8.5f on decent ground and that's what faces her today, she's 2lbs higher than that win, but her jockey (same one as that win) now takes 7lbs off, effectively putting her 5lbs to the good.
She's trained by Mick Appleby, whose runners seem to love it here (the short 25 mile journey from home might be a factor!), winning 35 of their 222 (15.8% SR) races here over the last 6.5 seasons with a £20 stake on each generating level stakes profits of some £3068 at an ROI of 69.1%. With today's race in mind, those 222 runners include...
- handicaps : 34/190 (17.9%) for 181.6pts (+95.6%)
- females : 17/107 (15.9%) for 76.4pts (+71.4%)
- top 3 finish LTO : 25/76 (32.9%) for 110.2pts (+144.9%)
- on good to firm : 10/71 (14.1%) for 42.9pts (+60.4%)
- 4 yr olds are 12/66 (18.2%) for 37.5pts (+56.9%)
- over this 8.5f trip : 11/65 (16.9%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
- and those up in trip by 1-1.5 f are 7/45 (15.6%) for 77.2pts (+171.5%)
AND...female handicappers with a top 3 finish LTO are 13/31 (41.9% SR) for 90.6pts (+292.4% ROI).
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Indigo Princess @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!