Stat of the Day, 1st December 2014
Vif Argent ran pretty well on Saturday at Bangor, but even before blundering the fourth from last fence whilst close to the lead, didn't really look like being the winner, if truth be told. It would have been nice for him to have cleared that fence better and at least given us a fighting chance on the run-in, but it knocked the wind out of his sails and he was pulled up before the next fence.
It was a disappointing end to what proved a disappointing month, resulting in a monthly deficit of 3.8pts, we were a solitary winner shy of wiping our faces. It was, in fairness, our first losing month since March and only our second in 14 months. We're still almost 93pts up from 1-a-day, 6 days a week, level stakes betting, so I'm not pressing the panic button just yet.
December, however, is a whole new month and the slate is clean, so let's see if we can kick off with a winner in the...
Where I've just taken 4/1 BOG about Divine Rule for this Class 6 (A/W) Handicap over a mile.
Divine Rule is trained by Laura Mongan....
...who has a good record on the All-Weather if we disregard longshots that I would normally consider for SotD anyway. Since 2009, Laura has had 131 runners on the A/W priced at 10/1 or shorter with 24 (18.3% SR) of them winning, which is a decent performance. If you'd staked a tenner on each of them, you'd now be £826 better, making a 63.1% return on your money.
In handicap contests, Laura's runners are 22 from 110 (20% SR) for 78.8pts (+71.7% ROI) profit, whilst her runners in all Kempton races in that same odds range have won 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) attempts for level stakes profits of 33.9pts (+62.8% ROI).
And it's a small sample size to close this one off, but Laura Mongan's runners in A/W handicaps here at Kempton are 8/46 (17.4% SR) for 31.4pts (+68.3% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter.
Divine Rule bounced back to form last time out...
...winning at Lingfield 9 days ago off the back of some indifferent form (466), but horses running in A/W handicaps within 25 days of a win LTO have a good record if that win LTO was preceded by a string of (at least 3!) consecutive unplaced efforts. Basically, trainers run the horse again fairly quickly after a return to form and of there's a bit of money about, they often win again!
Horses in this category and running in the 5/2 to 7/1 price range have won 209 times from 1022 races (20.5% SR) since the start of 2008, so there's plenty of back data there! These winners have helped to generate 183pts profit at an ROI of 17.9%, which is very good when you're considering over 1,000 bets. Of these 1022 runners, the record here at Kempton is 66/270 (24.4% SR) for 122.1pts (+45.2% ROI) which are very strong numbers indeed.
I did a bit more digging and I found that when that LTO win was at Lingfield (as it was for Divine Rule 9 days ago), the numbers offered more encouragement with 49 winners from 202 runners (24.3% SR) for 81.4pts profit at an ROI of 40.3%.
Horses who bounced back to form with a win at Lingfield LTO after a run of unplaced efforts and then went on to race at Kempton within 25 days at odds of 5/2 to 7/1 have won 16 of their 58 runs (27.6% SR) since 2008, producing level stakes profits of 36.9pts (+63.5% ROI)
To prove I'm not leaning heavily on historical data, it's handy/relevant to consider more recent events and in 2013/14, the back to form horses are 66/271 (24.4% SR) for 99.7pts (+36.8% ROI) and from which...
Here at Kempton : 22/89 (24.7% SR) for 36.7pts (+41.2% ROI)
Ran/won at Lingfield LTO : 17/55 (30.9% SR) for 34pts (+61.9% ROI) and...
Lingfield LTO and now at Kempton : 6/49 (31.6% SR) for 10.6pts (+55.9% ROI)
Divine Rule is a former course and distance winner and although he has only won four of his fifty-three runs on the all-weather, he was indeed a winner at Lingfield last out. That was over 7f, but h has won three times over today's 1m trip. As usual, he was doing all his best work late on at Lingfield, taking the lead inside the final furlong and quickly running on strongly to pull away and win by a length and a half going away.
Track and trip should hold no fears for him here and with a few front runners in the pack taking each other on early doors, the pace of the race might be set up for a finisher like Divine Rule, provided he's not too far adrift late on.
Today's jockey Liam Jones was on board last time out, so should be well versed in where/how to position his in the race and as such, I'm happy to kick off December with a 1pt win bet on Divine Rule at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power. When I wrote this (11.30pm on Sunday evening!), there were only a couple of books open for this race, so I strongly advise you to...
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