Saturday's Result :
11.30 Lingfield : Joegogo @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Led ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra closing stages.
Our first pick for 2018 runs in New Year's Day's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG
A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...
This 7 yr old gelding has won each of his last three starts, all under today's jockey Tom Humphries (claiming a useful 7lbs) including a course and distance success here in this grade last time out, 17 days ago, taking the horse's record under today's conditions to...
- 3/5 in fields of 8-11 runners & 3/4 after a break of just 8-30 days
- No run on heavy, but 2/4 on soft & 3/3 with today's jockey
- 2/3 at Class 2 & 1/1 here at Cheltenham
- 1/1 at this trip, leading to 1/1 over C&D (that win LTO!)
His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record on heavy ground with his handicappers winning 36 of 228 (15.8% SR) for 57.6pts (+25.3% ROI) over the last 5 years, including...
- males : 35/209 (16.75%) for 71.3pts (+34.1%)
- December to March : 31/187 (16.6%) for 72.8pts (+38.9%)
- at trips of 3m to 3m2f : 13/82 (15.9%) for 24.8pts (+30.3%)
AND...males running 3m to 3m2f in December to March are 12/60 (20% SR) for 42.3pts (+70.6% ROI)
Also, since 2010, Nigel's LTO-winning handicap hurdlers are 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 23.7pts (+20.1% ROI) when sent off at odds ranging from 13/8 to 8/1 (we should be safe there!), from which...
- those who ran in the last 45 days are 24/101 (23.8%) for 22.4pts (+22.1%)
- males are 25/100 (25%) for 27.9pts (+27.9%)
- at 3m/3m0.5f : 6/25 924%) for 18.8pts (+75.2%)
- at Class 2 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 20.8pts (+86.8%)
- and on heavy ground : 5/20 (25%) for 6.8pts (+34%)
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available from Betfair & Boylesports at 7.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!