Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2015
Saturday's Result :
1.35 Newmarket : Banksea @ 11/4 BOG : 3rd at 3/1 (Took keen hold tracking leaders, driven to challenge over 1f out, every chance approaching final furlong, no extra closing stages)
Monday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
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Ascendant @ 6/1 BOG
Since the start of 2014, relatively new trainer Johnny Farrelly has had some decent success since the switch from battered and bruised jumps jockey, particularly in handicap hurdles, where he has already had 17 winners from 116 runners (14.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 34pts at an ROI of 29.3%. And whilst that alone is a stat worth following, we do like to see if there are any strong angles to be found.
And with today's race in mind, those 116 runners are (in descending sample size)...
- 15/97 (15.5% SR) for 39.2pts (+40.4% ROI) from male runners
- 16/94 (17% SR) for 42.2pts (+44.9% ROI) with 7 to 11 yr olds
- 12/40 (30% SR) for 28pts (+70% ROI) at odds below 7/1
- 5/20 (25% SR) for 36.7pts (+183.4% ROI) at Class 3
- 2/4 (50% SR) for 17.74pts (+443.5% ROI) here at Ludlow
The optimum Farrelly handicap hurdler is a male aged 7 to 10 at odds below 7/1, because they are 10 fom 30 (33.33% SR) for 24.3pts at an ROI of 81%, with Class 3 runners winning 3 of 5 (60% SR) for 15pts (+300% ROI) and Ludlow runners are 1/2 for 5.67pts, both in C3 contests and both were today's pick...
...Ascendant who was pretty useful on the Flat which I always like to see in a hurdler, and he won 3 from 6 on the level, including 2 wins at 1m6f.
He has since won 6 of 21 over hurdles, which is a decent 28.6% strike rate and those 21 runs look a little like this...
- 5/14 right handed
- 3/4 on Flat/NH when running 4 to 11 months after his last run (2/3 over hurdles)
- 2/3 (112) here at Ludlow
- 2 wins at this grade
- 1/1 at 2m5.5f, but hasn't actually competed at 2m5f.
- 1/3 in the tongue tie.
- has already won off today's mark of 130 and was second off the same figure LTO.
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Ascendant at 6/1 BOG with any one of around eight firms. I'm using Bet365 today, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS