Saturday's Pick was...
2.45 Newmarket : Staxton @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, hung left under pressure entering final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish)
Monday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ninjago @ 10/3 BOG
In a 9-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...
Not entirely disgraced last time out when fourth in a far better contest, this gelding now drops 2 classes to run here off a mark a pound lower than LTO.
His trainer, Paul Midgely, is in good form right now with a record of 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) producing profits of 20pts at an ROI of 68.9% over the last fortnight, whilst the past 7 days have yielded 4 winners from 17 (23.5% SR) and 13.57pts (+79.8% ROI) profit.
This recent good form doesn't surprise me as Paul is one the trainers featured in my "Late Summer Handicaps" micro-system, which in Paul's case focuses on his record in Class 3-5, Flat handicaps in August/September.
Over the last 5 (including this one) seasons, such runners are 28 from 170 (16.47% SR) for 122pts (+71.8% ROI) profit, from which...
- over 5/6 furlongs : 27/157 (17.2%) for 126.8pts (+80.7%)
- males : 25/140 (17.9%) for 135.7pts (+96.9%)
- with an OR of 70-95 : 25/130 (19.2%) for 141.2pts (+108.6%)
- 4-10 yr olds : 24/126 (19.1%) for 140pts (+111.1%)
- over 6f : 9/62 (14.5%) for 39.7pts (+64%)
- at Class 5 : 11/58 (19%) for 38.9pts (+67.1%)
- 9-15 days since last run : 14/67 (20.9%) for 98.9pts (+147.6%)
- on Good to Firm : 7/45 (15.6%) for 45.9pts (+102%)
- and off a mark 1lb lower than LTO : 6/30 (20%) for 27.5pts (+91.8%)
...AND from the above...it's clear that 4 to 10 yr old males racing over 5 to 6 furlongs off marks of 70 to 95 seem to do the best and such runners are 20 from 93 (21.5% SR) for profits of 147.6pts at an ROI of some 158.7%.
These 93 can be further broken down as before...
- over 6f : 8/49 (16.3%) for 46.7pts (+95.2%)
- at Class 5 : 6/15 (40%) for 46.3pts (+308.6%)
- 9-15 days since last run : 10/40 (25%) for 102.6pts (+256.5%)
- on Good to Firm : 7/27 (25.9%) for 63.9pts (+236.8%)
- and off a mark 1lb lower than LTO : 3/17 (17.7%) for 19pts (+111.7%)
...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ninjago @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by SkyBet, 10Bet and SportPesa (as at 6.05pm on Sunday). Those able to do so, should consider the 4/1 BOG or 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365/Betway respectively.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!