Stat Of The Day

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.40 Ascot: Exosphere @ 5/2 BOG (2.15/1 after Rule 4) 8th at 6/4 (Held up in mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and weakened inside final 2f)

I must have had a whole clowder of black cats cross my path such was the lamentably bad performance of the SotD picks last week. Pretty much all of them went off much shorter, meaning we bagged the value but, as the short-termists say, "you can't eat value".

Saturday's post was all about a trainer for a race. Guess what? Despite the market smashing into his favoured runner, his other horse won it. 10/10 for theory, 0/10 for execution. 🙁

Well, faint heart never won fair maiden, so buckle up for a big-priced Monday tilt in the...

2.45 Southwell:

Who?

Dealing River at 14/1 BOG

Why?

Caroline Bailey and Harry Skelton have struck up a promising partnership in recent months. Since September last year, they've paired up ten times and have the following form string: 5161131411. Six wins, one place, from ten runners, for a profit of 29.25 points. Nice.

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Here they buddy up with a horse who form at the track is pretty good too. Specifically, Dealing River is 4112, all at the two mile trip. He was fourth in a NH Flat race here, then won two handicap hurdles (the latter off a mark of 101), and was fourth in a novice chase when last seen at the track in August 2014.

A win a month later pushed his rating to 114 and, after two further runs in 2014, he was injured and had a year and a half off. He's returned with two reasonable efforts, both with Harry in the saddle, and he could be ready to return to his best having dropped to a rating of just 102. That's five pounds below his last winning mark.

Caroline Bailey has excellent recent and long term course form, too: her five year record at Southwell reads 20 wins from 78 runners (25%, +56.97), and her one year form is even rosier - 8 wins from 19 runs (42%, +19.11).

At the prices, and with statistical cases to be made for all of horse, trainer and jockey, Dealing River is well worth a half point each way at Ladbrokes' BOG+ price of 14/1. He's the same BOG price with BetVictor, Coral and betfair sports, but Laddies' offer of the next price up if he goes off bigger than 14's is well worth taking, even though I expect him to be shorter.

Do make sure you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.45 Southwell

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