Stat of the Day, 20th October 2014
Our 4/1 pick Norfolk Sound was punted into 2/1 favouritism at Wolverhampton on Saturday evening, but could only manage to fill the runner-up berth.
With a furlong to run, five horses were all in with a shout of victory, but eventual 14/1 winner Saturation Point got first run and burst clear to build an unassailable lead with just half a furlong to go.
Our runner kept up to her work, but was defeated by two and a half lengths, a result I hope to avenge in Monday's...
A Class 4 handicap over 1m2f, where I've gone with a 7/2 BOG bet on Rae Guest's 4yr old filly, Calm Attitude...
...who will bid to improve Mr Guest's impressive record...
that has seen him be another of those trainers who have been profitable to back blindly in recent years. In all races since 1st January, 114 of his 768 (14.8% SR) runners have been winners and had you placed a £10 bet on each of them, your profits would currently stand at £1432, a return of 18.7% above your total stakes.
In handicap company, his record is 66 winners from 438 (15.1% SR) and the resultant 78.1pts level stakes profits are equivalent to 17.8% of stakes, whilst those handicappers sent off in the 5/2 to 10/1 price band have won 43 of 233 (18.5% SR) races for 71pts profit at an ROI of 30.5%.
He has a particularly good record in the lower grades...
At Class 4 and worse, his record reads 102 winners from 446 with that 19.6% strike rate generating 180.8pts profit at an ROI of 34.8%, whilst those running in handicaps having a similar strike rate of 18.4 % (via a 60/327 record) producing a similar 34.7% ROI, thanks to level stakes profits of 113.5pts.
And Calm Attitude also fits a far more specific Rae Guest profile...
In the last four years, his Class 4 females have won 11 of 72 (15.3% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 92.2pts and an ROI of 128%.
She also drops in Class today...
...with the yard having a good record over the years with horses dropping in Class on the Flat. Since the start of the 2008 season, 33 of Rae's 156 class droppers (21.2% SR) have been victorious with followers being rewarded to the tune of 127.3pts at an ROI of 81.6%.
Class droppers in handicap races have a 26/117 (22.2% SR) record for 65.7pts (+107.1% ROI).
Those dropping into Class 4 handicaps have won 7 of 24 (29.2% SR) contests, generating level stakes profits of 49.2pts at an ROI of 204.8%, whilst those in the 5/2 to 10/1 bracket won 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 28.5pts (+167.6% ROI).
Calm Attitude has been in excellent consistent form over the last 18 months or so with her last 8 races finishing 31111422, the last of which was a little over seven weeks ago in a far better race than this Class 4 event.
Despite running at Class 2 on quicker ground than she'd prefer last time out, she was still only beaten by a length and a quarter by a horse considered good enough to subsequently run at Listed class.
Although she's never raced on heavy ground before, she has an impressive record on soft ground, winning 4 of 6 efforts and she has a record of 1122 at this trip, whilst today's jockey Chris Catlin has a 4/7 record when riding her.
And it's finally worth mentioning that Rae Guest's handicappers are 5/21 here at Windsor and with a 2/7 record at Class 4.
All of which points me towards a 1pt win bet on Calm Attitude at 7/2 BOG. I've gone with Coral, who offer the small insurance policy of a free bet if we're beaten by a head, but the actual 7/2 BOG price is very widely available, so you can take your pick of the bookies when you...
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