Saturday's Result :
5.05 Newmarket - Stone The Crows @ 3/1 BOG - 6th at 9/4 : In touch, headway over 7f out, tracked leader halfway until over 2f out, weakened over 1f out...
Monday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG
A simple one to start the new week...
...with a 3 yr old gelding who finished third last time out 40 days ago. He was outpaced over a mile in a Class 5 contest that but now benefits from an extra two two furlongs (stays further than this) and a drop in class today.
Over the last two years, his trainer, Richard Hughes, has a 13.7% strike rate in Flat handicaps (38 winners from 278) and although backing them blindly only produced a very small (0.9pts or 0.32% of all stakes) profit, the fact that they were profitable at all gives us a solid base to work from, as in the context of this race, those 278 runners are...
- 30/197 (15.2%) for 37.9pts (+19.3%) at odds of 5/2 to 14/1
- 14/76 (18.4%) for 22.8pts (+30%) at Class 6
- 9/43 (20.%) for 41pts (+95.3%) after a break of 31-60 days
- 5/30 (16.7%) for 13.8pts (+46.1%) over the 1m2f trip
- and 5/27 (18.5%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%) on the turf here at "Leafy"
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Skybet and 10Bet at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!