Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2014
The line came at just the wrong moment for Mymatechris on Saturday, as he was beaten on the nod. A stride earlier or a stride later and he was the winner at 11/4, a shade shorter than Matt's advised 3/1 BOG odds.
It sort of summed up the luckless week we'd had here at SotD, but as I said in my roundup, we're still having an excellent year and we've still another six cracks at clocking up more profit before 2015 arrives.
To which, our next port of call is the...
A Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m 4f on the all-weather, where trainer Shaun Harris runs the 7yr old Reality Show.
Trainer Shaun Harris...
If you had backed all of Shaun's A/W handicappers over the last four years, you'd have been on 32 winners from 213 bets and whilst a 10.2% strike rate doesn't generally cut the mustard for SotD purposes, the profits are very good at 118.9pts, or a 38% return on stakes. Here at Wolverhampton, the strike rate is pretty similar at 10.1% (12 winners from 119), but the profits are more where you'd expect at 10.4pts, or 8.7% ROI.
There's a disparity in his overall stats, because of some winners priced outside of where we like to focus, so with a simple 8/1 odds cap introduced, we then arrive at an A/W handicaps record of 23 winners from 108 runners (21.3% SR) for 44pts (+40.7% ROI) profit, much more in line with what we need to be seeing as An SotD selection. And with that same odds cap applied here at Wolverhampton we have 10 winners from 49 (20.4% SR) for 25.2pts (+51.5% ROI).
If I could now just revisit the 23/108 stat just above...
The record in 3yo+ handicaps is 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 31.5pts (+73.4% ROI)
The record for Shaun's 5 to 7 yr olds is 17/75 (22.7% SR) for 35.2pts (+47% ROI), and...
Shaun Harris' 5 to 7 yr olds priced at 8/1 or shorter in a 3yo+ A/W handicap have won 8 of 30 (26.7% SR) races in the last four years for level stakes profits of 28.5pts at an ROI of 94.9%. Incidentally, here at Wolverhampton that record is 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 15.4pts (+80.9% ROI).
The horse, Reality Show...
...is a much better performer on the A/W than the flat. He's 0/7 on turf, but on the A/W he has won four times and made the frame on two occasions from just eleven outings. He has, therefore been placed in 54.6% of his A/W outings and has a win ratio of 36.4% producing profits of 14.5pts (+132.1% ROI) with all four wins coming from the eight runs in which he was sent off at 8/1 or shorter.
His record at Class 6 level on the All-Weather is 3 wins and a place from nine starts, whilst his overall record here at Wolverhampton reads 13161. All four career wins have been over today's 1m 4f trip and his record in four course and distance runs here is 1161, with a 2/2 record over C&D at Class 6 level.
He was second last time at Kempton over today's trip, when beaten by three parts of a length by the progressive 3 yr old filly Golly Miss Molly, who was carrying 17lbs less than Reality Show that day with the third placed horse a good five lengths further back.
Golly Miss Molly was raised 8lbs for that win, but she still won again at Lingfield on Saturday over this trip. Our runner is up just two pounds for that effort, so if the form holds out and he reproduces a similar run, he should have something in hand here.
Only a handful of firms have priced this race up so far, but the standout price is the 11/2 BOG on offer from Bet365. You might want to take an E/W option, but for me it's a 1pt win bet on Reality Show at 11/2 BOG with Bet365, but please do...
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