Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Haydock : Cloudy Too @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, hit 13th, ridden after 4 out, no impression from next, left modest 3rd approaching last)

Monday's runner goes in the...

3.05 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alto des Mottes @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2013, jockey Brian Hughes has a 17.2% strike rate here over fences at Carlisle, after winning 10 of his 58 efforts in that period and he fares particularly well when there's some money about for his mounts, as his record on those priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 9 winners from 26 (34.6% SR) for modest level stakes profits (but profit nontheless!) of 2.9pts at an ROI of 11.1%.

Of those 26 runners at 5/1 and shorter, those running on heavy ground are 4/10 (40% SR) for 2.5pts (+25% ROI) and it's one such runner that brings Brian here for his only ride of the day, so all his eggs are in the same basket as ours!

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That said, Alto des Mottes should relish the conditions here and he comes here in good form. He's a promising 6yr old gelding who broke his duck over hurdles last May over 3m on heavy ground at Hexham, before being rested for the best part of six months ahead of launching a winter campaign over fences. He seemed progressive in finishing 435 in his first three runs, before getting off mark at Newcastle just before Christmas, also on heavy ground over 2m7.5f.

He has run once since, when 2nd of 12 at Catterick stepped up in trip to 3m6f on soft ground and he really should have won to come here seeking a hat-trick. He was 8 lengths clear approaching the last fence which he made a hash of. That took all his momentum away and was caught and headed on his way to a half length defeat.

The drop back in trip should allay any stamina fears, and it's worth noting that Barton's Gift, who won over 3m1f on Saturday, was 45 lengths further back that day! He has actually won twice and finished as a runner-up once from three runs at 2m7.5f & 3m, whilst has he two wins and a place on heavy ground.

When sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter, he has 2 wins and 3 top 3 finishes from 7 runs and in fields of 7 runners or less, he has 2 wins and 2 top 3 finishes from 6 attempts.

And at 2m7.5f / 3m on heavy ground Alto des Mottes is 2 from 2.

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Alto des Mottes at 3/1 BOG with either Bet365 or Betvictor, who are best priced at present (6.25pm), whilst there's also 3/1 non-BOG on offer from both Ladbrokes and Stan James (they both go BOG in the morning), so why not...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Carlisle

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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1 reply
  1. Doshtosh says:

    Another absolute nightmare, but, in fairness, we knew after a couple of fences and didn’t have to sit it out hoping for a miracle, it would take a lot more than that in this case!

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