Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2015

Jebediah Shine was a late withdrawal on Saturday, leaving me with nothing to report on, as we were denied the opportunity to add to a brilliant week's results.

Four winners and a runner-up from just five selections last week is going to be tough to match, never mind beat, but I'll certainly be having a go at it, starting in Monday's...

4.10 Chepstow:

A Class 5, 7 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where I've just taken 7/2 BOG about George Baker's gelding Orlando Rogue who comes here in fine form.

Under the right conditions, trainer George Baker is one to keep an eye out for, especially if there's a bit of market support for his runners.

In Flat handicaps since the start of the 2009 campaign, backing each of his 302 runners that were priced in the 6/4 to 8/1 odds range would have seen you back 67 winners (22.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 103.4pts at an ROI of 34.3%.

Personally those stats are enough for me to want to back this horse, but further analysis of those 302 handicappers gives us even more confidence in his chances.

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Of the 302 runners, in decreasing sample sizes...

  • 54/232 (23.3% SR) for 92.6pts (+40.1% ROI) at trips of 5 to 10 furlongs
  • 26/116 (22.4% SR) for 54.6pts (+47.1% ROI) in Class 5 contests
  • 24/101 (23.8% SR) for 47.2pts (+46.7% ROI) with Pat Cosgrave in the saddle
  • 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 17.9pts (+30.8% ROI) at this 7f trip
  • 5/20 (25% SR) for 24.1pts (+120.5% ROI) here at Chepstow.

Incidentally the Cosgrave / Baker / Chepstow angle has 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for 66.9pts (+418.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2013 season. Those running at this Class 5 level are 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 69.6pts (+633% ROI), whilst those running over trips of 7f/1m are also 6/11 but for 61.7pts (+560.9% ROI).

Combine the two above and the trainer / jockey / track combo is 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 62.4pts (+780% ROI) profit at betfair SP. There is, however a 33/1 (BFSP of 46.44) skewing the data, so we'll remove that and focus on those priced 11/8 to 7/1, leaving us with 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 21.5pts (+307.6% ROI).

Orlando Rogue has one win and two runner-up finishes from his last three starts, all over today's trip, where his record reads 10122. He's 2 from 7 under Pat Cosgrave and has finished 1122 when priced at 4/1 or shorter, suggesting the market usually has a decent handle in his chances.

Bet365 are currently offering 7/2 BOG about Orlando Rogue here and the same price is available from the Betfair Sportsbook and once the whole market has formed, you can compare all the main bookies by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.10 Chepstow

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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3 replies
  1. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Chris,

    Top class analysis as usual. I also notice that G Baker has another runner (Mister Mayday 9/2 to 5/1 with firms that have priced up as of 9pm Sunday evening) matching up well against most of the statistical pointers above at the 2.30 Chepstow. Surely worth a punt as well and maybe a double too.

    Best

    Martin

    • Chris Worrall says:

      That’s right, Martin.
      Sometimes this does happen and I have to pick one or the other.

      The earlier race just looked a little more competitive and MM is up 4lbs for a short head win LTO.
      He also steps up in trip and has been drawn 11 of 11.

      But, none of that means he can’t win, of course.

  2. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Chris….

    Only just got back from work and found that an e/w double could have been eked out. Seems that both horses ran decent enough races….just not quite good enough to get their heads in front. Onwards and upwards.

    Best

    Martin

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