Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2015

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2015

Saturday's Result :

7.45 Wolverhampton : Aqua Ardens @ 4/1 BOG non-runner

Monday's selection runs in the...

2.55 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Battlecat @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

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Since the start of 2010, Evan Williams' sub-6/1 runners here at Ludlow are 56/156 (35.6% SR) for an excellent 50.1pts (+32.1% ROI) profit across all races here, but more pertinently, they are also...

  • 54/143 (37.8% SR) for 55.6pts (+38.9% ROI) with male runners
  • 48/133 (36.1% SR) for 45.4pts (+34.1% ROI) at the ages of 5 to 9
  • 45/108 (41.7% SR) for 52pts (+48.2% ROI) from those who are debutants or were top 4 finishers LTO
  • 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 33.7pts (+39.6% ROI) from those rated (OR) 100 to 125
  • 21/77 (27.3% SR) for 21.6pts (+28% ROI) in handicaps
  • 27/76 (35.5% SR) for 32.3pts (+42.5% ROI) in chases
  • 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 4.7pts (+31.2% ROI) when the jockey had a 5lb claim.

The last of those stats reminds me hat Evan does well with identifying races to use these claimer jockeys, as since the start of 2010 under 5lb claimers, Evan's handicappers are 17 from 97 (17.5% SR) for 28.1pts (+29% ROI) profit.

And finally, in the same 2010-15 timeframe as the two sets of data above, Evan Willaims chasers priced at 15/8 to 12/1 who have lost at least five races on the bounce and are now on a lower mark than their last win, finally got back to winning ways on 30 of 155 occasions (19.4% SR) rewarding their backers' pateince with profits of 32.6pts at an ROI of 21.1%.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Battlecat at 9/2 BOG with any one of a host of firms, but I'm using 10BET, as they'll refund me if my selection loses by a head! To see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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2 replies
  1. Martin says:

    Hi Chris….great write up as usual. See Evan Williams has a couple of other runners on the card at Ludlow today, Armchair Theatre and Tornardo in Milan. Evan Williams does have a pretty decent record at this meeting as highlighted by Mal Boyle on his Placepot picks for Sportlife…

    ‘ Evan Williams has saddled nine winners during the last three years at this corresponding meeting…’ coupled with the note for the 2.20 (Tornardo in Milan)…’
    Evan Williams has saddled two winners and a bronze medallist in this race to date via just the four renewals (not represented last year)’.

    Armchair Theatre seems short enough….but Tornardo in Milan fits a lot of the stats above to make it a possible bet at 9/2?

    Best

    Martin

    PS Great to have Mal back on Geegeez!

    • Chris Worrall says:

      I suppose so.
      I won’t be backing it, though. The race looks to competitive for me and without really having a solid opinion on the race, I think Lucy Wadham’s runner might be better.

      As for Mr Boyle, always good to have him on site.

Comments are closed.